It’s hard to believe that 12 months have passed since the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Sterling remains weak against the Euro, Downing Street’s future hangs in the balance and the country is divided right down the middle. But the UK’s UK 100 is still offering a wealth of trading opportunities. Talk about resilience. This report identifies our ten favourite UK 100 stocks that could offer you ample profits over the coming three months.

The second quarter of 2017 has delivered yet more surprises for investors: not only the announcement of the UK snap general election but also the eventual Hung Parliament – the 3rd Western political surprise in under 12 months. Surely there’s nothing left that could top that? Au contraire. Below we preview the key events of Q3.

Brexit: Let’s be having EU

Official Brexit negotiations have finally begun, only two weeks after the UK election result. What was supposed to be a procession for the Conservative party ended in an embarrassing Hung Parliament, giving greater voice to the opposition and those who seek a ‘soft’ Brexit. These include members of Prime Minister Theresa May’s own cabinet. Can the government’s negotiating team, led by David Davis, get the talks off to a strong start?

Central Banks: Europe turns hawkish

While the US Federal Reserve has been gradually raising interest rates since December 2015, Europe has taken longer to warm to emerging hawkish rhetoric. However, Q2 saw some seismic changes from the Fed’s European peers. After months of speculation, the ECB began discussing tapering QE, with Italian lender Unicredit expecting process to begin in September, while in the face of rising inflation, the most policymakers at Bank of England voted for a rate rise since 2011. In fact, analysts at Nomura even see the BoE raising interest rates back to 0.5% from record lows of 0.25% as soon as August. Might Governor Carney finally pull the trigger?

US Politics: Trump trade all but over?

After a testing second quarter, the Trump administration is now no closer to key reforms than it was three months before. Its proposed Healthcare bill continues to be delayed from being presented to Congress by lawmakers, which has even prompted the IMF to lower their growth forecasts for the US as the proposed fiscal stimulus is still yet to appear. Can the administration overcome the odds and pull a fiscal rabbit out of its political hat?

On top of these key events, OPEC will have to react to falling Crude Oil prices when they meet in July and Angela Merkel looks to hold on in the German Presidential election. Who says excitement was over for another year?

Over the page we analyse the best and worst UK 100 performers of the year so far. Perhaps some of the names overleaf might surprise you. Could Q3 see a turnaround for the UK’s biggest utilities provider?

We have noted in previous top stock picks reports this year that we’ve seen not just ‘once in every four-year events’ take place, but multiple once in a generation events, a trend which continued into the second quarter. Notable market-moving events have come in abundance in the second quarter, greatly influencing the UK 100 . Below, we look at the best and worst performers through the first half of the year. Who are the heroes and villains?

      UK 100 Underperformers

UK 100 Underperformers

Source: AlphaTerminal (28 Jun)

The most striking performer in the tables above might be BT, the UK 100 stalwart that has fallen to 4-year lows but perhaps the most surprising performance comes from UK Index newcomer ConvaTec. The medical products supplier, having only been floated on the London Stock Exchange in October, has seen its meteoric rise not just rewarded with a listing on the UK’s blue-chip index, but has also outperformed its large-cap peers during 2017.

Fresnillo (9th; +27.9%) was the top performer during Q1 (1st;+29.9%), however has failed to build upon those gains as Gold remains stuck between safe-haven seeking and more hawkish central bank rhetoric. On the other hand, International Consolidated Airlines (2nd; +37.6%), the fourth worst performer of 2016, has built on gains made during the first quarter (4th; +21.3%) to cement its position in the UK Index leaders table, while Persimmon (10th; +27.9%) also continues to trade strongly, holding its top 10 position while peer Taylor Wimpey drops out.

The rest of the top performers is comprised of Defensive stocks, many of which have a European focus (Coca-Cola and Unilever) benefitting from Brexit uncertainty and the UK general election lifting the Euro against Sterling.

At the bottom of the index, BT (100th; -21.4%) has superseded Pearson (95th; -13.7%) as the worst performer, continuing to be dogged after its January profits warning due to accounting malpractices at its Italian division. Pearson shares, on the other hand, have welcomed the restructuring of the business, rallying from 2017 lows.

Other names languishing in the bottom 10 at 2017’s halfway point are Next (99th; -20.6%), holding its runner-up position as UK Retail Sales continue to fall, while Tesco, Kingfisher and ITV suffer from poorly-received results.

With Q3 loaded with yet more significant macroeconomic and political events, we’ve compiled an analysis of our  10 favourite stocks that we think you should watch as we enter the second half of the year. Which do you like?

1) BAE Systems (BA.)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 680p (+6.8%) or pull back towards rising lows support at 550p (-14%)?

• The Defence Manufacturer has broken below post-referendum rising lows support at 650p
• Brokers are positively-biased, with 70% of analysts seeing upside to current price level
• Momentum negative but off lows; Stochastics oversold
• Directional Indicators diverging bearishly

Broker Consensus: 62% Buy, 29% Hold, 9% Sell

Bullish: Vertical Research Partners, Buy, Target 780p, +22%, (27 Jun)

Average Target: 677.4p, +6.3% (29 Jun)

Bearish: Barclays, Underweight, Target 460p, -28% (2 Mar)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

2) Barclays (BARC)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 240p (+16%) or pull back towards November lows of 180p (-13%)?

• The UK Banking giant has rallied from 2017 lows to test 4-month falling highs resistance at 205p
• Brokers are positively-biased with over 70% of 12-month average target prices above current level
• Momentum turned positive while Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounce from touching Oversold level
• Directional Indicators converging bearishly

Broker Consensus: 46% Buy, 29% Hold, 25% Sell

Bullish: Societe Generale, Buy, Target 265p, +28%, (15 May)

Average Target: 222.5p, +7.4% (29 Jun)

Bearish: Goldman Sachs, Sell, Target 180p, -13% (5 May)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

3) Carnival (CCL)

Will shares return to all-time highs of 5300p (+4.4%) or pull back towards April lows of 4650p (-8.2%)?

• US tour operator has fallen from all time highs of 5300p. Will it fall all the way to 2-month rising lows support?
• Point and Figure chart reversal for first time since January
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing negative divergence with price, Momentum back at zero from positive
• Directional Indicators flat from positive; bullish kiss or bearish cross?

Broker Consensus: 54% Buy, 38% Hold, 8% Sell

Bullish: Bernstein, Outperform, Target 5991p, +18%, (23 Jun)

Average Target: 5371p, +6.0% (29 Jun)

Bearish: Berenberg, Hold, Target 4300p, -15% (22 May)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

4) Centrica (CNA)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 235p (+16%) or pull back towards 2017 lows of 190p (-6.1%)?

• UK Energy supplier has bounced from 2-month rising lows support of 200p after UK election
• Brokers are negatively-biased, although over two thirds have 12-month target price above current level
• RSI ralling with rising lows support, Stochastics recovered sharply from overbought
• Directional Indicators converging Potential bullish cross?

Broker Consensus: 16% Buy, 52% Hold, 32% Sell

Bullish: Bernstein, Buy, Target 250p, +24%, (22 Jun)

Average Target: 207.7, +2.7% (29 Jun)

Bearish: Investec, Sell, Target 170p, -16% (5 May)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

5) Glencore (GLEN)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 345p (+19%) or pull back towards December lows of 260p (-11%)?

• World’s largest commodity broker has been range-bound since May. Break higher or lower?
• Broker ratings are strongly positive biased, with 96% of 12-month average target prices above current levels
• Momentum has turned positive while Relative Strength Index (RSI) testing falling highs resistance
• Directional Indicators diverging bearishly after bearish kiss

Broker Consensus: 64% Buy, 32% Hold, 4% Sell

Bullish: Bernstein, Outperform, Target 460p, +58%, (29 Jun)

Average Target: 362.5p, +25% (29 Jun)

Bearish: Liberum, Hold, Target 285p, -2.0% (1 Jun)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

6) National Grid (NG.)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 1100p (+15%) or pull back towards 2016 lows of 890p (-7.2%)?

• Utilities provider has fallen to 2017 rising lows support at 955p. Break lower or bounce back to 1100p?
• Brokers are neutral with recommendations, although over 85% see upside to current price
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned oversold for first time since December 2016
• Directional Indicators converging bullishly

Broker Consensus: 30% Buy, 50% Hold, 20% Sell

Bullish: JP Morgan, Overweight, Target 1200p, +25%, (23 Jun)

Average Target: 1057p, +10% (29 Jun)

Bearish: Credit Suisse, Underperform, Target 927p, -3.4% (28 Jun)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

7) Next (NXT)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 4500p (+14%) or pull back towards 2016 lows of 3500p (-12%)?

• The high street retailer has fallen to post-referendum rising lows support. Will it bounce or break?
• Brokers are leaning towards negative bias, however two thirds of brokers see upside to current price level
• Momentum is at its lowest since January while Stochastics have turned oversold
• Directional Indicators diverging bearishly

Broker Consensus: 12% Buy, 52% Hold, 36% Sell

Bullish: UBS, Buy, Target 4900p, +24%, (23 Mar)

Average Target: 4093p, +3.3% (29 Jun)

Bearish: HSBC, Reduce, Target 3360p, -15% (13 Dec)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

8) Randgold Resources (RRS)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 770p (+11%) or pull back towards February lows of 6300p (-9.3%)?

• The gold miner has been range-bound for most of 2017. Will it break down or bounce from the channel floor?
• Brokers are positively biased, with 80% of brokers seeing upside to current price level
• Stochastics are oversold, however Relative Strength Index (RSI) yet to reach the key level
• Directional Indicators converging bullishly

Broker Consensus: 64% Buy, 32% Hold, 4% Sell

Bullish: BIBC World Markets, Outperform, Target 9000p, +30%, (23 Jun)

Average Target: 7716p, +11% (29 Jun)

Bearish: RBC Capital Markets, Underperform, Target 5800p, -16% (29 Jun)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

9) Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 270p (+6.6%) or pull back towards April lows of 220p (-13%)?

• UK Bank has fallen from an 18-month high to test 8-month rising lows support at 250p
• Brokers are currently negatively leaning, although are split 50/50 on which way price will go next
• Stochastics recovered sharply from oversold while Momentum briefly turns positive
• Directional Indicators showing no bias. Bullish cross or bearish kiss?

Broker Consensus: 19% Buy, 50% Hold, 31% Sell 

Bullish: Grupo Santander, Buy, Target 346p, +37%, (25 May)

Average Target: 285.3p, +2.0% (29 Jun)

Bearish: AlphaValue, Sell, Target 181p, -29% (29 Jun)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

10) Sainsbury (J) (SBRY)

Will shares return to 2017 highs of 285p (+10%) or pull back towards 2017 lows of 250p (-3.6%)?

• UK Supermarket has bounced from a duo of support at 250p. Will the rally continue or fizzle out?
• Brokers are split down the middle, with no recommendation bias and brokers split 50/50 on price direction
• Stochastics have recovered from oversold, however Momentum has fallen further negative
• Directional Indicators diverging bearishly

Broker Consensus: 35% Buy, 40% Hold, 25% Sell

Bullish: UBS, Buy, Target 350p, +35%, (3 May)

Average Target: 275.8p, +6.5% (29 Jun)

Bearish: JP Morgan, Underweight, Target 200p, -23% (22 Jun)

Pricing and consensus data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 June. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

The Accendo Markets Research Offering

Does your current broker’s morning report tell you all you need to know about yesterday’s news? If so, how is it offering you anything more than the plethora of information already available on the internet?

We’re proud that our morning editorial has become a hot commodity in the City, its content quoted daily by the journalists that are writing the news everyone else will be reading later in the day, if not the next. Our morning report tells you what’s driving the market at that moment and what to look out for in the day ahead.

If a company has reported earnings before the market opens, we’ll tell you why the shares are called to open up or down in relation to that announcement.

As well as the Morning Report, signing-up to Accendo Markets Research & Trade Ideas offers you the chance to receive the following publications:

• Another Level: A selection of key level alerts on various stocks.
• Index Focus: A selection of key level alerts on the major indices.
• Trade Alerts: Trading ideas from our analysts. What do they think is likely to move?
• Macro Calendar: Live market-moving data, breaking news as it happens
• Week in Advance: A summary of next week’s key events. Is there a trading opportunity there for you?

To ensure you can act as quickly as possible, you’ll receive an email with a link to the latest publication as soon as it’s released. You can unsubscribe from these emails at any time.

Based on a wealth of experience, gained from both large and small institutions, our Research and Trade Ideas are produced in-house. Our team of dedicated professionals comprises both analysts and traders, drawing upon a wide range of resources and methodologies.

Our aim is to provide you with the manpower and expertise you need to help you clarify, interpret and capitalise on the ever-growing volume of market information.

The journalists don’t pay for it and neither do you, so why not give it a go? You’ve nothing to lose and perhaps a little more to gain… Subscribe Today!

Want to take advantage of the above opportunities right now?

Whether you see UK stocks going up or down for the remainder of the year, tradable opportunities will present themselves regularly. We’re here to help you weed them out and capitalise on them. Accendo Markets can help you increase your profit potential with the use of leveraged instruments such as CFDs, a flexible alternative to traditional shares that is currently exempt from UK stamp duty.

CFDs: Like shares, but more flexible

The example above shows how buying 1,450 shares in British Land @ £6.90 requires an outlay of around £10,000 plus commission (see left-hand box), while the same exposure via a CFD requires about £500 plus commission (see right-hand box). If a trader invests in British Land, one would assume they believe the share price is likely to move in their favour. After considering the ‘worst case scenario’ and assigning funds to cover it, the trader may conclude there’s little point in exposing the full £10,000 to the BLND shares - some of that capital could be put to good use elsewhere in the markets. (Source: IG, Prices indicative)

CFDs are leveraged instruments, but you don’t have to use the leverage

If you had, say, £10,000 to invest in the stock market, you could deposit that amount into a share dealing account and purchase shares in a company. You would pay commission to open the position, 0.5% in stamp duty and the full £10,000 will be tied up in your chosen shares with any profit or loss based on that exposure. The same £10,000 worth of exposure can be secured with a CFD for a fraction of the initial outlay thanks to leverage, with the risk and reward the same as if £10,000 worth of traditional shares were held. But should you not be interested in leverage, you can always treat CFDs like shares. Simply deposit £10,000 into a CFD trading account and take the equivalent CFD position which will tie up just £500 (note that overnight financing costs will still apply). The remaining £9,500 is not tied up, so you can use some of that to take advantage of another short-term opportunity elsewhere, or simply leave it on the account to support any losses. Best of all, using a CFD means you pay no stamp duty!

What’s your view?

Think shares will rise? Take a long position by buying CFDs (buy low, aiming to sell high). Think they’ll fall? Take a short position by selling CFDs (sell high, aiming to buy low). For a more detailed rundown of CFDs, their mechanics, associated costs and some trading scenarios download our ‘Comprehensive Guide to CFDs’ here.

Free online quotes and Competitive exchange rates

Do you need to exchange currency? You could be being overcharged by thousands of pounds by your bank or bureau de change!

It’s now easier than ever to get bank-beating currency exchange rates that could save you thousands. For too long banks have dominated the FX market to the point where they will simply give you an exchange rate that may as well have been plucked from thin air. The current system is due an overhaul.

The foreign exchange market is always moving. On this premise, a new breed of Currency Exchange specialists is able to offer unparalleled services that will help you by constantly monitoring the market on your behalf. It’s now the norm for customers to expect the support of a knowledgeable and approachable account manager - your eyes and ears in the market - who’s always on hand to talk.

Download your free Currency Exchange Guide here to make sure you don’t make the mistake of accepting an inferior exchange rate.

This free guide will tell you:

• Common mistakes to avoid
• How to get preferential exchange rates
• How to get your timing right

Whether you're an individual or a business, this guide could put thousands of pounds in your pocket. Be informed, don't lose out. Download your free guide here.

AccendoFX Ltd - 1 Alie Street, London, E1 8DE (UK) - AccendoFX Ltd. is registered with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) No. 671133 and HMRC No. 12798406. Registered in England and Wales No. 9269365.