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Lloyds at the End of the Tunnel

21-9-16In a week that threw up just about as many twists and turns as you can shake a stick at, there was one shining light that many investors took stock of. In a break from the political circus of the general election, the UK government announced that Lloyds has finally returned to full privatisation, putting to an end 9 years of taxpayer-financed ownership. Not only that, but the Treasury also managed to bag a £900m profit on its investment; a pretty nice payment for 9 years’ work.

Putting the term ‘bailed-out bank’ behind it, Lloyds – the first UK bank to re-emerge from state ownership – has its sights now set firmly on the future, and nothing says confidence like buying 50,000 of your company’s shares only 24 hours after closing the door on the darkest period in its history. Which is exactly why CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio did just that on Thursday morning, investing around £36,000 in the purchase in a clear signal that he is here to steer the ship for a little while longer.

With the debt crises of Europe now beginning to appear in the rear view mirror, and with the end of the LIBOR rate rigging scandal and PPI repayments headache nearing, the bank’s finances have shown resilience in recent quarters; Q1 saw a doubling of profits despite compensation claims to £1.3bn.

Nothing highlights this strengthening position more than the reinstatement of the group’s dividend in 2015 and its further 185% increase from 0.8p last July to 2.2p this April. But this dividend growth is not only limited to Lloyds, with fellow banking behemoth Barclays also raising its divi offering to 2 pence from half that in 2016.

This week’s news has helped Lloyds’ shares further, with Wednesday’s announcement inspiring a breakout from lingering 2017 resistance at 71p to trade at 12-month highs of 72.5p, a climb of 14% from April’s 2017 lows and an astonishing 35% since the lows of Brexit.

However, despite Lloyds’ 4.1% share price rally this week, other banks yet to show as pronounced a reaction to perhaps the most encouraging news emerging from the sector since the financial crisis. Barclays (BARC; +2.6% on the week) continues to trade within 2% of its 2017 lows and 37% from its August 2015 highs, while fellow bailed-out bank the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS; +2.4%), despite having topped 15-month highs earlier this month, remains embroiled in a potentially damaging legal case surrounding its recession-based practices.

While Lloyds has a way to go to recapture post-2008 highs of 89p highs that it attained back in June 2015, its certainly looks as though the Black Horse could be the first of the UK banks to re-emerge from the dark, post-crisis tunnel.

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Tom Cook, Trader, 19 May

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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