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We’ve been hearing about it non-stop for months on end. First the Supreme Court case, now the House of Lords. But finally, next week should see the end of the debate as Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to officially announce the UK’s intention to leave the European Union. Looking back, the day after the referendum saw an astonishing 3.9 billion shares traded, a huge proportion of which were in the Airline, Banking and Housebuilding sectors.
Therefore, with Article 50 only days away, this week’s newsletter’s focus will be on these key UK sectors. While my colleague this week is covering the banking sector, I’ll provide an insight into the popular Airlines and Housebuilders, two sectors that are regularly at the top of the UK 100 volumes leaderboard.
First, lets delve into the Airlines sector. After a noted struggle to the start of 2017, where it almost faced demotion to the , easyJet (EZJ) shares have come roaring back. After the pains of early 2017, the budget airline is now challenging the ceiling of a channel that could see the £10 per share mark return should a comprehensive breakout occur.
Yet easyJet still remains over 55% lower than it did on the day before the referendum. Concerns that weak Sterling and a loss of access to European airports, its key (and so far, only) area of travel, saw investors offload shares faster than they could pack their bags for a holiday. On the two days after the referendum, EZJ shares were one of the biggest losers, down over 36% in total.
Could the triggering of Article 50 provoke a similar reaction in EZJ shares to that on the day after Brexit if Article 50 is triggered? Conversely, could a defiant Theresa May prompt a significant Sterling rally, increasing the purchasing power of British tourists on the continent? Perhaps we could even see a dramatic increase in the amount of holidays to Europe as Britons make the most of open access to the continent before 2019? All of these scenarios could be an option, but which do you see being more likely?
Moving on to the Housebuilders, let’s take a look at another stock that is reaching a key level only days before the UK government undertakes its most important decision in decades. In fact, for good measure, let’s look at two.
Barratt Developments (BDEV) and Persimmon (PSN) have both mounted incredible recoveries since the June referendum, with the latter now trading at a higher level than it was on 23 June. Both have now reached significant levels of resistance, after which uptrend could carry the prices of both shares above and beyond 2016 highs.
Sterling weakness has provided healthy foreign demand for British homes by investors who have had their eye on a bargain in Britain. Could a resurgent pound stop the flow of foreign money? On the other hand, could we see increaed domestic demand as UK citizens look to get their foot on the property ladder before the Brexit uncertainty gets turned up a notch?
Article 50, should it happen next week, may provide the stimulus for these three shares to break out of these key resistance levels. Alternatively, Article 50 could instead have a bearish impact on these shares on Wednesday. Either way, there is no way you can ignore the significance of next week’s headline event, as the UK enters one of the most important periods in its history.
Will your current broker make you aware of the biggest risers and fallers should Article 50 be triggered on Wednesday? Will you be kept aware of the latest information on these stocks, before the markets even open? If you’ve said no to either of those questions, perhaps its time for a change. For a start, sign up to our research here to find out what you’re missing out on. If you would like any further information on the shares mentioned above, or perhaps other companies in the same sectors, then put in a call to our trading floor on 020 3051 4544, and find out how our award winning service can help you, today.
Samuel Springett, Senior Trader, 10 March
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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