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With another week comes another debate, as Sterling is set to to take yet another ride on the Brexit rollercoaster. This week, the latest hurdle to face the UK’s exit from the European Union is the House of Lords, with the upper house of Parliament beginning its review of the Article 50 bill with a two day debate and the possibility of a vote on Tuesday night – this, however, will only come about if the peers make the unusual move of opposing government legislation at this early a stage.
While the government managed to pass the bill with no amendments in relative ease in the House of Commons, peers could provide more resistance to the bill and include amendments such as the guarantee of rights for Europeans currently working in the UK, while the hard versus soft Brexit argument will most likely rear its head once again. However, despite the possibility of opposition from the Lords, where the Conservative majority is considerably less than in the Commons and the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats have a significantly higher representation, the unelected peers may be unwilling to rock the boat too much for fear of inciting calls for the House’s abolishment. Let the tightrope walking commence.
Also in focus for Sterling will be Tuesday’s Public Finances data release and Wednesday’s second reading of UK GDP alongside other indicators as to the strength of the UK economy. Although last week macro data had a predominantly bearish impact on the Pound, expectations that the former could improve while the latter remains unchanged mean data may have a more positive influence in comparison with last week.
The US Dollar is having a quiet start to the week on account of the President’s Day holiday for the world’s largest economy, however the rest of the week will once again be a busy affair for the US Federal Reserve as central bankers continue on the speakers’ trail ahead of their 15 March meeting and the minutes from the 1 February meeting are released on Thursday. Increasingly hawkish commentary from the Fed Chair Janet Yellen is keeping alive the possibility of a rate hike at the March meeting of the FOMC. However with perceived dove Neel Kashkari speaking on Tuesday, a battle of the birds could ensue, especially given his colleague Bullard’s overtly dovish speech only a fortnight ago.
After reiterating once again the the Fed should hike rates sooner rather than later last week, Yellen will now be hoping that the Trump administration provides greater detail of its proposed fiscal stimulus, including the “phenomenal” tax plan promised by the President himself. Watch this space. Or Twitter.
The Euro is once again faced with a dearth of European macro data, with the only significant data releases all expected to remain relatively unchanged this week. The second reading of both Eurozone CPI on Wednesday and German GDP on Thursday are therefore likely to have minimal impact on the currency unless surprise revisions take place.
As a result, the increasingly unpredictable French election will likely dominate headlines and dictate the fortunes of the single currency. Although the first round of voting is still 2 months away, polls continue to show right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen gaining ground on her Conservative and Independent rivals Francois Fillon and Emmanuel Macron. It is expected that Le Pen will win the first round of voting, with Macron expected to win the second by 58% to 42%, although this figure has fallen from 60-40 in only three days Could Le Pen continue to pile the pressure on the others, adding to global political uncertainty?
Finally, Monday’s meeting of the Eurogroup may also prove to be worthy of attention, as the issue of Greece is once again brought to the fore. Could a debt deal finally be hammered out between the perennially troublesome EU economy and its peers? Or might 2017 see a rerun of 2015 with Greek economic stubbornness hindering the Euro?
Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)
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UK Economic Announcements
00:01 Rightmove House Prices
11:00 CBI Trends
US AND CANADIAN MARKETS CLOSED
Intl Economic Announcements
07:00 Producer Prices (DE)
15:00 Consumer Confidence (EZ)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Public Finances
Intl Economic Announcement
00:30 PMI Manufacturing (JP)
07:45 CPI (FR)
8-9am Manufacturing & Services PMI (FR, DE, EZ)
14:45 Manufacturing & Services PMI (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Q4 GDP, Index of Services, Private Consumption, Investment & Govt Spending
Intl Economic Announcements
09:00 IFO Surveys (DE)
09:00 CPI (IT)
10:00 CPI (EZ)
12:00 Mortgage Applications (US)
15:00 Existing Home Sales (US)
19:00 FOMC February Meeting Minutes
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 CBI Sales Data
Intl Economic Announcements
07:00 GDP, Consumer Confidence (DE)
13:30 Chicago Fed, Weekly Jobless Claims (US)
14:00 House Price Index (US)
16:00 Crude Oil Inventories (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Mortgage Approvals
Intl Economic Announcements
15:00 University of Michigan Sentiment, New Home Sales (US)
18:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
Technicals
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