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On Friday, Donald Trump received the keys to his new home on Pennsylvania Avenue in a typically Trump demeanour. Now officially sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, foreign exchange markets have reacted unfavourably to the Republican’s opening gambit, as his inauguration speech proved significantly more protectionist than many expected. Markets will now be looking as to how the new occupant of the Oval Office handles his first week in office.
Trump is expected to open a new round of negotiations with its trade partners over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Monday, while he has promised to officially withdraw US support for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of Barack Obama’s landmark pieces of legislation that sought to improve trade with the US’s Asian counterparts. This overwhelmingly anti-globalisation and protectionist series of opening acts from the new President has resulted in the US Dollar weakening to its lowest level in 6 weeks as he begins his first week in office. This has pushed its European peers higher, with the trade-surplus-running Eurozone’s single currency approaching its December highs while Sterling has recovered from its lowest level since October’s flash crash as the Dollar’s trade-weighted basket continues a 2017 downtrend.
Macro data, however, may be able to lift the Dollar basket from its run of poor performance. The release of fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the world’s largest economy is set to show that the pace of economic growth has declined. Yet with a slew of positive economic data released over the past month, there is some scope for a surprise to the upside. Across the Atlantic, the UK also sees the release of its Q4 GDP figure. While an expected slowdown in the figure is expected, it may have less of an impact on Sterling than the week’s other main event.
The ongoing Brexit saga once again headlines potential catalysts for the performance of the Pound. Having on Tuesday enjoyed its strongest single trading session against the US Dollar since 2008 in reaction to Prime Minister Theresa May’s outlining of her government’s negotiation tactics, the announcement of the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of triggering Article 50 via royal prerogative this Tuesday could prove equally as important. The government’s use of royal prerogative, allowing it to begin the UK’s negotiations with the EU without the need for parliamentary approval, was rejected by the High Court and if the Supreme Court judges agree, it could throw a spanner in the works for the PM and her plan to begin negotiations by end-March.
Should this be the case, the greatest concern for May and her government would be that Scottish Parliament, led by its SNP majority, could look to block any move to withdraw the UK from the EU’s single market, perhaps going so far as to invoke a repeal bill that blocks Article 50 entirely. However, this would likely be seen as a positive for Sterling as it could see its access to the large European market maintained, while a ruling in favour of the PM could results in the Pound’s week long rally coming to an end.
There are far fewer drivers for the Euro this week than its Anglo-American peers, with a lack of significant macro data coming the week after the ECB kept its accomodative policy on hold as expected. As a result, it is likely that the EU’s single currency will be driven almost exclusively by its UK and US equivalents, with perhaps the exception coming on Tuesday morning as a range of PMI Manufacturing and Services readings are released.
Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)
Intl Economic Announcements
04:30 All Industry Activity Index (JP)
05:00 Coincident, Leading Economic Indices (JP)
14:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (CN)
15:00 Consumer Confidence (EZ)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 Supreme Court Announcement on Article 50
Intl Economic Announcement
00:30 PMI Manufacturing (JP)
8-9am PMI Manufacturing & Services (FR, DE, EZ)
14:45 Markit Manufacturing (US)
15:00 Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
11:00 CBI Trends
Intl Economic Announcements
09:00 IFO Surveys (DE)
15:30 Crude Oil Inventories (US)
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UK Economic Announcements
09:30 GDP, Index of Services, House Purchase Loans
11:00 CBI Sales
Intl Economic Announcements
00:30 House Price Index (US)
13:30 Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale & Retail Inventories, Jobless Claims (US)
14:45 Chicago Fed, Markit Services PMI (US)
15:00 Leading Indicators, New Home Sales (US)
16:00 Kansa City Fed (US)
23:30 CPI, Unemployment (JP)
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Chinese New Years Eve
Intl Economic Announcements
N/A Retail Sales (DE)
07:45 CPI, GDP (FR)
13:30 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Consumption (US)
15:00 Uni. of Michigan Confidence (US)
18:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
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