‘What a week and what a year. And it’s not over yet!!

Any traders/investors seeking even a little respite from the market excitement that we are witnessing will, I’m afraid, be sorely disappointed as we envisage anything but a docile conclusion to 2016. Many key dates lie ahead in the calendar certain to move markets and stock prices. Here’s what we’re looking forward to;

In hindsight (that wonderful trading tool), we are waist deep into November with markets still digesting the US presidential election. November 2015 saw a robust 400pt UK Index rally into December. Could we get it again? Recent UK retail sales data has proved significantly healthier than expected. Is the sector set for a strong year-end helped by the festive period and cold weather?

Will the Phenomenon that is the ‘Santa-Rally’ make a return for the 17^th year out of 21, an 80% success rate over the last 20 years. Past performance, as we know, never gives any concrete depiction of what future performance may look like, however, hints such as  Prudential, Smith & Nephew, Wolseley, Capita, CRH, WPP, Barratt Developments and Sage Group, have shown consistent seasonal growth from mid-November through year-end with average performance of 6.6%. Keep a look out for our latest marketing report hitting your inbox on Sunday evening.

With the UK unemployment rate now at an 11year low, and wage growth evidently stronger, many bearish commentators, analysts, reporters and pollsters who had plastered the media with doomsday predictions and scenarios after the Brexit vote, and almost apocalyptic visions of a ‘Trump-Triumph’ have had to backtrack. With both political events now firmly in the rearview mirror, global indices have digested the news well, with rallies of 2-6%, even going on to challenge or make record highs. Clarity is still lacking in terms of the long-term ramifications of these events, and how they will shape markets going forward, however traders are sanguine about the short to medium term prospects of this ‘new-order’ political scene and its market effects.

Looking ahead to these key dates, serves up a real opportunity for both Bears and Bulls to take advantage of the wide movements in share prices and commodity prices prevalent over the last 24 months, with December 5-8 a major date as the Supreme Court passes final judgment on whether Teresa May and her band of merry men and women require a parliamentary vote to trigger Article 50 for Brexit in March. Sterling and the UK Index whose constituents saw major movement after the high Court recently passed judgment could thus see some big price moves.

Oil and Oil stocks have been a significant driver of sentiment, with a continued ’will they-wont they’ pantomime related to production cuts. Rhetoric from OPEC members and non-members this year has been consistently inconsistent and often unhelpfully contradictory. The 30^th November will be when we get a definitive answer on an Oil production freeze or cut to address a global supply glut and support prices. Oil prices have fallen 16% since august, rallied nearly 5% one evening in mid-September on news that there was unanimous agreements for cooperation from members to cut by 700,000bpd, but has since been volatile. ‘Black-Gold hunters like BP and Royal Dutch Shell have thus traded higher and lower. The global supply glut means something needs to be done. Another failure to agree anything concrete could send Oil back towards the 12 year lows of $28pb last January. Cuts need to be sufficient, and more importantly respected, by all who sign up? Easier said than done.

The US Federal Reserve appears set to hike rates again next month, although we should have had 3 rises by now based on last  year’s projections. Another example of how central banks, analysts and forecasters can get it very wrong. Rates are still low, and likely to stay that way for the foreseeable, to the benefit of markets. The Fed might even still hold off on ‘Trump uncertainty’.

Whatever happens week to week, we at Accendo keep all clients abreast of market news, commentary and price moves, both in run up to and after all the above events. But to be in a position to profit from our fantastic service (and research!) you need to be a client first. Which is simple – just click here and I’ll speak to you next week.

Samir (Sam) Alnakkash, Trader, 18 Nov