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FX – The week ahead, Monday 18 April

Macro observations

  • Oil prices have fallen in response to a failed OPEC meeting in Doha on Sunday, which is sure to move the currencies of commodity producing nations, in particular the USD, Aussie Dollar, South African Rand, CAD. See also the Japanese Yen for safe haven seeking.
  • US Fed speculation about the timing of future rate hikes is also still a major driver.
  • This week sees the ECB update markets on its monetary policy. Recall the last time it reported and the markets’ reaction. Is super-dovish policy losing its grasp? And are the central banks that pursue it losing their credibility? See also the BoJ…

Key data this week (Sign up here to get our daily live macro-calendar)

UK

  • Mon: –
  • Tue: –
  • Wed: Unemployment Rate, Claimant Count; CBI Industrial Trends Surveys
  • Thur: Public Sector Net Borrowing; Retail Sales; CBI Distributive Trends Surveys
  • Fri: Public Sector Finances

US

  • Mon: –
  • Tue: Housing Starts & Building Permits
  • Wed: MBA Mortgage Applications; Existing Home Sales; Crude Inventories
  • Thur: Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims; Philadelphia Fed Index
  • Fri: –

EU (data for Eurozone unless otherwise stated)

  • Mon: –
  • Tue: Current Account & ZEW Surveys
  • Wed: PPI (DE)
  • Thur: ECB Interest Rate
  • Fri: IFO (DE)

GBP/USD (‘Cable’)

GBP/USD (daily)

GBPUSD daily (-)

 

GBP/USD (hourly)

GBPUSD hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Stochastics & RSI testing 4-week falling highs
  • Momentum still negative

 

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR (daily)   

GBPEUR daily (-)

GBP/EUR (hourly)

GBPEUR hourly (-)

Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • Bounce off end-2014 levels found resistance  at ceiling of 2-month falling channel
  • Steepening falling highs through March and April (hourly chart)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (daily)

EURUSD daily (-)

 

EUR/USD (hourly)

EURUSD hourly (-)


Technicals (based on daily price data unless otherwise stated)

  • 2-month Momentum divergence
  • RSI & Stochastics pointing back up
  • pair tracking the 20-day MA
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