Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 set to open lower by 40pts at 6538pts after comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, sent US and Asian markets into the red. Yellen revealed the central bank’s stimulus program could end in the second half of 2014 and interest rates could start to rise in the first half of 2015, both time frames earlier than had been expected. Also the predicted target interest rate levels for 2015 (1%) and 2016 (2.25%) were higher than expected.
Economic data from the US has been robust in recent months, signalling a stronger economy and justifying the Fed’s actions. Stimulus withdrawal and rate hikes will no doubt test the economy’s strength.
The US markets exercised a ‘risk-off’ knee-jerk reaction to Yellen’s comments. The Dow Jones finished down 114pts (an improvement on the 200pt drop intraday), S&P500 down 11.5pts and NASDAQ down 25.7pts.
Asian markets took a bath, the Hang Seng the hardest hit falling 392pts or 1.82%. Japanese, Australian and Indian markets followed suit.
Mr Osborne’s Budget 2014 was, in the main, well received. The chancellor boasted the economic recovery in the UK and described it as statistically stronger than any other recovering global economy.
However, there were a couple of notable casualties in the market. Legal & General, Aviva and Prudential fell as much as 8% after it was announced all tax restrictions on pensioners’ access to their pension pots are to be removed, ending the requirement to buy an annuity. Also, the taxable part of pension pot taken as cash on retirement to be charged at normal income tax rate, down from 55%.
William Hill and Ladbrokes also felt the pinch (down 6.8% and 11.7%) as duty on fixed-odds betting terminals increased to 25%.
Results today: Next (NXT.L) FY Revenue ex-items £3.74bn (£3.73bn expected) Operating profit ex-items £722.8m (£722.5m expected) pretax profit ex-items £695.2m (£693.8m expected) up 12% Dividend 129p. Sees FY 2015 sales brand growth 4-8%, pretax profit £730-770m, profit growth 5-11%. To pay special dividend of 50p in May. Sees real risk to sustainability of current recovery. United Utilities (UU..L) trading in line with expectations, sees revenue higher than last year, 2013/14 profit moderately higher, investing £800m in asset base in 2013/14. Savills (SVS.L) FY Pretax profit +35% to £70.1m, revenue + 12% to £904.8m, final dividend 7p p/sh, total dividend 19p p/sh, expects continuing demand for London property. Ted Baker (TED.L) FY pretax profit + 34.6% to £38.9m, revenue £321.9m vs. £254.5m last year, Final dividend + 22.3% to 24.2p p/sh, capital expenditure in the current year is anticipated to be higher than last year at £25m.
In focus today: BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaking at 7:15, SNB Interest rate decision at 8:30. US initial/continuing jobless claims at 12:30, US CB leading indicator, existing hones sales change, Philadelphia FED manufacturing survey @ 14:00, US Bank stress test information @ 20:30
Commodities: Gold traded at $1,325.66 oz the lowest level since 28th February as the FED states interest rates to rise by next year while reducing monetary stimulus which has boosted the Dollar. Copper trades at $6,485.25 tn snapping a 5 day winning streak and dropping to a 44month low on speculation that demand will slow as the FED boosted their forecasts for key interest rates and China’s growth faltered. WTI crude rose to $100.37 a barrel whilst Brent crude fell to $105.85 a barrel after a government report slowed that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delievery point for the contract dropped for a seventh week.
FX: Dollar traded at $1.3839 against the Euro, whilst trading at 102.22 against the Yen which is its biggest gains in 7 months after the FED signalled an interest rate rise as early as next year. The Yen traded at 141.48 against the Euro. The Yuan touched 6.2334 against the dollar, the weakest since February 2013 as the PBOC lowered daily fixing rates.
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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Britain’s ARM sees 50 pct rise in value of smartphone-related chips by 2018
- Premier Farnell says full-year pretax profit 74.8 mln pounds
- Arbuthnot Banking Group full-year NII rises about 50 pct
- United Utilities expects higher operating profit in 2013/14
- Lloyds Bank says 4 billion pounds of ECN offers accepted
- MITIE sees FY results in line with expectations
- MITIE wins network rail contract
- Mulberry Chief Executive Guillon quits
- Hunting to issue new shares
- Savills full year profits rise 35 pct
- Premier Farnell to buy privately held AVID Technoligies for $13 mln
- Next annual profit jumps 12 pct
- Crest Nicholson says forward sales for 2014 and beyond up 50 pct on last year
- M&C Saatchi FY pretax profit rises 8 pct to 18.6 mln stg
- Ted Baker posts 35 pct rise in full-year profit
- GSK disappointed with lung cancer treatment results, continues trial