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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
William Hill PLC 397.6 22.8 6.1 122.6
Mondi PLC 1096 61 5.9 217.6
Old Mutual PLC 197.1 10.9 5.9 76.93
Tullow Oil PLC 799 34.5 4.5 -40.24
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1397 47 3.5 364.7
Weir Group PLC 2567 54 2.2 246.2
Standard Life PLC 390 8.2 2.2 84.14
Whitbread PLC 4487 90 2.1 220.5
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Pearson PLC 1013 -63 -5.86 13.37
Aggreko PLC 1560 -70 -4.29 61.11
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 437 -14.8 -3.28 128.7
Shire PLC 3320 -95 -2.78 169.5
Randgold Resources Ltd 4747 -119 -2.45 -7.65
Antofagasta PLC 900.5 -21 -2.28 -12.23
Carnival PLC 2463 -45 -1.79 14.56
Capita Group (The) PLC 1140 -18 -1.55 51.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,809.70 -0.57 -0.01 8.24
UK 16,726.00 202.98 1.23 23.40
FR CAC 40 4,408.08 11.69 0.27 21.61
DE DAX 30 9,692.08 103.75 1.08 27.80
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,321.70 49.05 0.3 17.59
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,308.12 -10.81 -0.25 37.57
US S&P 500 1,859.45 5.16 0.28 23.76
JP Nikkei 225 14,652.23 -188.84 -1.27 -10.06
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,587.82 -249.14 -1.09 -3.08
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,384.33 -20.49 -0.38 0.60
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 103.795 1.035 1.01 11.56
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 110.765 1.75 1.61 -2.58
Gold ($/oz) 1344.55 15.95 1.2 -14.81
Silver ($/oz) 21.5275 0.2625 1.23 -24.99
Platinum ($/oz) 1453.1 6.1 0.42 -10.57
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.6735 -0.06 9.66
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3789 -0.1 4.53
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.2136 0.04 4.91
UK 100 called to open 80 points lower

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 08:45     IT            PMI
  • 08:50     FR           PMI
  • 09:00     EU          PMI
  • 09:30     UK          PMI
  • 09:30     UK          Net Consumer Credit
  • 09:30     UK          Mortgage Approvals
  • 15:00     US          ISM

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -80 at 6726, as tension in Ukraine mounts over the weekend. Russia’s G8 partners have condemned Moscow’s move to protect its interests in the Crimea as it strengthened its hold on the peninsula. Russia’s leader, Putin, has so far rejected calls to pull back an estimated 6,000 troops, which he says are protecting his country’s interests and those of ethnic Russians.

In Asia, it was the Nikkei that was hit the hardest hit, closing down 188 points (1.3%) at 14,652 whilst China’s Hang Seng was down 250 points (1%) at 22,587 on the back of developments in Ukraine however they are all off their worst levels.  Chinese manufacturing data came in as expected however the figure (48.5) was an eight-month low.

In the US on Friday, equity markets were relatively unchanged with the Dow Jones closing up 49 points at 16,321 whilst the S&P was up 5 points at 1859. US index futures are however pointing to a sharper decline for later on this afternoon.

In focus today macro data-wise we have Spanish, Italian, French, German, European, Greek, and UK PMI due out from 8:13am ending at 9:28am. UK Mortgage approvals and Net Lending at 9:30am. Mario Draghi is speaking at 14:00, US ISM manufacturing data due at 15:00.

Results Today: Thorntons (THT.L) H1 revenue up 4.5% 139.7m, pretax profit up by 47.3% to £7.2m. EPS 7.8p, outlook for year in line with expectations, board not recommending an interim dividend. Keller Group (KLR.L) FY revenue £1,438.2m, pretax profit £74.1m, to deliver another year of progress, notably US, Europe to remain subdued. Amlin (AML.L) FY pretax profit £325.7m vs. £264.2m last year, dividend up 10% to 18.2p p/sh, FY net earned premium 32,077.4m vs. £1,970.5m, European storms have led to a small loss.

The UK 100 is set to open around one-week lows due to tensions in the Ukraine. With the index having dropped through recent support of 6775 and 6740, we now see 6711 as a technical support level before we look at levels in the 6600s for further support.

In commodities, gold has rebounded over 1.4% to hit $1347 on continued tensions in Ukraine as demand for the safe haven was boosted. Gold rallied 6.6% in February to add to its 3.2% gain in January, and is now within touching distance of 6 month highs whereby a breakout could see $1400 in sight. Silver also advanced trading at $21.46 having gained 11% in February, its first monthly gain since October. Despite the appeal of the safe haven commodities, elsewhere copper slipped to three month lows following Chinese manufacturing data showed a slowdown with HSBC Markit PMI at 48.5. WTI traded as high as $104.65 in early hours having gained over 5.5% this year. With Russia the world’s largest energy exported, a close eye will be kept on these escalating tensions as we could see a breakout of recent range-bound trading.

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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Aussie  Inventories      WORSE
  • China   PMI                  IN-LINE
  • Japan   Vehicle Sales   IN-LINE

See Live Macro calendar for all details

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Thorntons H1 revenue rises 4.5 pct to 139.7 mln stg
  • Keller full-year pretax profit 74.1 mln stg
  • Gemfields first-half EBITDA falls
  • Intertek expects to see improved growth in 2014
  • Recruiter Robert Walters posts 6 pct rise in full-year gross profit
  • Johnson Service FY revenue from cont. ops. falls to 193.6 mln stg
  • Serco appoints three new non-executive directors
  • Smiths News says first-half profit to flat year-on-year
  • Ultra Electronics full-year pretax profit falls 38 pct
  • Johnson Service reports higher profit, buys hotel linen supplier
  • Insurer Amlin posts 23 pct rise in full-year profit
  • African tower firm IHS raises $490 mln to fund expansion
  • Johnson Service buys Bourne Services, announces placing
  • Cairn Energy founder Bill Gammell to step down as chairman
  • Keller Group profit jumps on US construction market recovery
  • Enquest completes acquisition of Kittiwake stake
  • AstraZeneca says FDA approves Bydureon pen for type 2 diabetes
  • Al Noor Hospitals full-year net profit rises 2 pct
  • Lamprell sells services division to pay down debt

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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