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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
CRH PLC 1788 104 6.2 2.6
RSA Insurance Group PLC 101 3.5 3.6 -15.62
Sports Direct International PLC 808.5 15 1.9 702.9
William Hill PLC 377.3 5.9 1.6 111.2
Admiral Group PLC 1491 21 1.4 27
Sage Group (The) PLC 435.5 6.1 1.4 91.26
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 451.7 6.2 1.4 136.4
Associated British Foods PLC 2955 35 1.2 259.5
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo PLC 967.5 -30 -3.01 20.94
Rio Tinto PLC 3439 -97.5 -2.76 -0.88
Anglo American PLC 1500.5 -33 -2.15 -45.82
Vodafone Group PLC 246.95 -5.35 -2.12 38.32
Antofagasta PLC 914.5 -18.5 -1.98 -10.87
BG Group PLC 1097.5 -20 -1.79 -5.47
BHP Billiton PLC 1928.5 -31.5 -1.61 -6.56
BAE Systems PLC 410.9 -6.6 -1.58 13.82
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,830.50 -35.36 -0.52 7.95
UK 16,528.00 -11.39 -0.07 22.42
FR CAC 40 4,414.55 -4.58 -0.1 20.30
DE DAX 30 9,699.35 -9.59 -0.1 27.10
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,179.70 -27.44 -0.17 15.79
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,287.59 -5.38 -0.13 34.04
US S&P 500 1,845.12 -2.49 -0.13 21.28
Nikkei 225 14,970.97 -80.63 -0.01 0.06
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 22,452.98 135.78 0.01 0.08
S&P/ASX 200 5,437.00 3.15 0.00 0.04
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 101.695 -0.295 -0.29 4.47
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 109.365 -0.46 -0.42 -7.34
Gold ($/oz) 1344.85 3.55 0.26 -17.76
Silver ($/oz) 22.0225 0.1625 0.74 -27.61
Platinum ($/oz) 1439.8 0.8 0.06 -16.01
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.6686 0.07 7.76
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3742 -0.03 2.95
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.2141 0.08 4.67
UK 100 called to open 20 points lower

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30     UK          GDP
  • 12:00     US          Mortgage Applications
  • 15:00     US          New Home Sales

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -20 at 6829, as global equity markets all retreated from intra-day highs although we did see UK/European indices rallying into the close yesterday.

In the US, stocks fell, with the S&P failing to break a record for a second day, after data showed slower growth in home prices and a drop in consumer confidence. The index closed down 2.5 points at 1845 whilst the Dow Jones was down 27 points at 16,179. Focus seemed to be on the collapse of Mt Gox, one of the largest exchanges dealing in the internet money Bitcoins, that “disappeared overnight” after reports $375m worth of the virtual currency had been stolen.

In Asia, flagging U.S. consumer confidence and concern about a growth slowdown in China led to a mixed trading session. The Hang Seng was up 135 points at 22,452 although Chinese property stocks fell for a fifth day amid concern that a weakening property market will weigh on developers and consumer companies. Japan’s Nikkei was down 80 points at 14,970, pushed lower by a firmer yen.

Results today: ITV (ITV.L) Revenue £2.39bn vs. £2.36bn expected. EPS 11.2p vs. 11p expected. Adjusted pretax profit at £581m. Sees double digit growth in online pay interactive in 2014, announces special dividend of 4p. FY dividend 3.5p. Taylor Wimpey (TW..L) Operating profit up 39.1%, pretax profit up 47.6%, order book rose 31.4% by value, FY revenue up 13.7%, FY EPS 8.3p vs. 7p expected. Travis Perkins (TPK.L) FY adjusted pretax profit up 12.4% to £321m, FY EPS up 14.3% to 103.6p, revenue now over £5bn with annual growth of 6.3%, final dividend up 24% to 21p, FY dividend 31p, expects capital expenditure to increase by £130-150m in 2014. Greggs (GRG.L) FY pretax profit down 18.9% to £41.3m, total sales up 3.8% to £762.4m, total dividend 19.5p, market conditions to remain challenging in 2014. Petrofac (PFC.L) Revenue $6.3bn vs. $6.2bn up 1%, net profit $650m vs. $632m, sees flat to modest growth in 2014. Weir Group (WEIR.L) FY revenue £2.43bn vs. £2.47bn expected, pretax profit £418m vs. £440m, expects to return to underlying growth in 2014.

In focus today will be UK GDP data out at 9:30am, with the figures expected to come in-line with last month. With the UK 100 cooling off from 14 year highs yesterday a positive reading could push the index past 6900. With 6800 proving support, we see 6850 as resistance once more before 6900 comes into play. Later this afternoon we have US Mortgage Applications at 12:00pm followed by US New Home sales at 15:00pm. US equity markets finished in the red last night (DOW -0.17%, S&P -0.13%, NASDAQ -0.13%) following weaker housing, and confidence data. Despite this the S&P briefly surpassed its all-time high before erasing gains.

In commodities, the rally in gold continued, trading at a high of $1345 following the weak US consumer confidence and housing data. With $1350 still proving a ceiling, poor data from the US again today could see a clear break of this level. Next stop $1400? Despite having rallied over 11% this year, some analyst are still bearish with one from UBS stating on CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” that the 2014 rally was set to end in tears, and gold and silver would see double-digit declines this year. WTI traded at lowest levels in a week at $101.80 following stockpiles data.

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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Aussie  Construction Work      WORSE

See Live Macro calendar for all details

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Travis Perkins FY adjusted EPS up 14.3 percent to 103.6 pence
  • Hays consultant headcount up 2 pct year-on-year
  • Segro net asset value per share rises 6.1 pct
  • Greggs year profit falls 19 pct
  • Heritage Oil OML 30 operations in Nigeria meeting expectations
  • Xcite Energy raises recoverable crude estimates by 2.5 percent
  • Safestore says Q1 trading in line with expectations
  • Stagecoach says no significant change to expected adj EPS for full-year
  • CSR fourth-quarter operating profit falls 23 pct
  • Restaurant Group posts 13 percent rise in 2013 profit
  • International Personal Finance full-year pretax profit 118.1 mln stg
  • Petrofac beats profit forecast, repeats cautious outlook
  • Fresnillo says granted new Mexican explosives permit
  • Centamin says gains controlling interest in Ampella
  • AO World sets share offer price at 285 pence
  • ITV to pay special dividend after earnings rise
  • Taylor Wimpey to return at least 250 mln stg to shareholders
  • Weir Group’s profit falls 5 pct as energy orders drop
  • Direct Line’s profit rises on fewer home insurance claims
  • Henderson retail clients drive return to positive flow of new money

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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