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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Croda International PLC 2727 47 1.8 14.77
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 1115 9 0.8 27.65
Diageo PLC 2050.5 16.5 0.8 14.75
GlaxoSmithKline PLC 1589.5 12.5 0.8 19.06
IMI PLC 1465 11 0.8 33.55
Burberry Group PLC 1631 12 0.7 33.03
British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC 874 5 0.6 13.95
Old Mutual PLC 193 1.1 0.6 8.31
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 73.91 -2.34 -3.1 54.25
Shire PLC 2520 -73 -2.8 33.55
Barclays PLC 266.35 -7.1 -2.6 9.88
Tullow Oil PLC 1049 -26 -2.4 -16.81
William Hill PLC 412 -10.2 -2.4 27.61
GKN PLC 352 -8.7 -2.4 53.85
Coca-Cola HBC AG 1825 -45 -2.4 0
Fresnillo PLC 1013 -20 -1.9 -45.15
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,557.37 -39.06 -0.59 11.18
UK 14,920.90 -111.37 -0.74 20.57
FR CAC 40 4,172.08 -31.58 -0.75 14.58
DE DAX 30 8,635.30 -40.44 -0.47 13.44
US DJ Industrial Average 30 15,401.40 -49.69 -0.32 17.53
US Nasdaq Composite 100 3,765.29 -9.44 -0.25 24.70
US S&P 500 1,701.84 -8.07 -0.47 19.33
JP Nikkei 225 14,732.61 -9.81 -0.07 41.72
HK Hang Seng Index 48 23,174.37 -197.17 -0.84 2.28
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,234.20 -18.26 -0.35 12.59
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 103.52 0.15 0.15 12.78
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 108.105 0.1 0.09 -2.85
Gold ($/oz) 1323.05 -4.15 -0.31 -21.04
Silver ($/oz) 21.68 -0.115 -0.53 -28.54
Platinum ($/oz) 1425.05 -2.55 -0.18 -7.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.6033 -0.05 -1.28
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3503 0.04 2.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1873 -0.09 -3.6
UK 100 called to open +10pts @ 6565

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:00     DE           IFO Survey
  • 09:30     UK          BA Home Loans
  • 14:00     US          S&P Housing
  • 15:00     US          Richmond Fed & Consumer Confidence

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +10pts this morning at 6,565, having found support around 6540 after a 3-day sell-off on indigestion of Fed decision to leave QE3 programme unchanged. While the index remains in a 3/4-day falling channel, requiring a breakout at 6570, the 3-month graph shows proximity to rising lows since end-June around 6530, suggesting a correction within a longer-term uptrend.

European bourses called to open up around 0.1% after a quiet session in Asia with equities largely lower (Japan back after holiday; Apple suppliers benefiting from strong first weekend sales of 5S and 5C) thanks to a negative lead from Wall Street. Note Chrysler filing for an IPO and Blackberry entering letter of intent with consortium to go private.

Sentiment sapped given continued uncertainty regarding the outlook for the Fed’s QE3 bond-purchasing stimulus programme, with conflicting comments from Fed members and the looming fiscal headwind (budget, debt ceiling).

Xinhua news agency in China reports a survey suggesting most of China’s SMEs have seen slowing profits growth in 2013, and talk of another PBOC injection into money markets. Equities in Shanghai in the red with an absence of fresh catalysts.

In focus today, we have German IFO Surveys where modest improvements are seen, UK BBA Home Loans seen rebounding, US S&P Housing growth solid, although US Richmond Fed and US Consumer Confidence are forecast to deliver slight falls.

With central bank speakers keeping things interesting with (Fed views varied), listen out for comments today from members of BoE (forward guidance clarity), ECB (another LTRO?) and Fed (George is up again). While Fed’s Dudley & Lockhart dovish and Bullard, Fisher & George more hawkish, ECB President Draghi saying another LTRO could be launched if needed, even though banks less reliant on it.

In FX, USD index gaining ground slowly but struggling at 80.6 overnight on prospect of continued Fed stimulus (weakened too much?). GBP/USD also stalled around 1.60 after the strong gains on Fed no-taper and ignoring of BoE forward guidance. EUR/USD dipped below 1.35.

Gold still in $1300-1360 range after breakdown from rising channel. The yellow metal snapped a 2-day decline on speculation that demand may strengthen ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday as the depressed price attracts buyers. Roubini bearish on lack of tail risks (no need for safehaven), stronger USD and rising interest rates.

Oil extended declines with US Light Crude down at $103.5, although Brent Crude found support at $108 before last-week’s lows. The UN Security Council is working towards a Syria resolution. Nigeria restored flows from 3 sabotaged trunk lines.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Cupid posts half-yearly loss
  • Regal Petroleum H1 profit falls
  • Close Brothers adjusted profit rises 24 pct
  • Panmure Gordon’s first-half profit falls to 0.3 mln stg
  • Murray to replace Moran as Premier Foods CFO
  • Euromoney sees year profit of at least 114 mln stg

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