Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open -10pts at 6625 taking a pause after yesterday’s gains, with Asian equities giving up ground overnight after both Google and Microsoft saw Q2 profits miss consensus, offsetting the positive run registered by the banking sector.
Note Japan’s Nikkei registered a worrying 500pt 30-min decline, attributed by some as profit taking ahead of the weekend election, before paring losses. More conflicting talk from officials from China on banks sector risk and GDP on target. Helpful as ever.
Positive sentiment on US data (Jobs, Q2 earnings, Philly fed) and ratings agency Moody’s upgrading its outlook on the US to Stable from negative (ironic timing with Detroit filing for bankruptcy ) unable to offset fact we have no more from Bernanke for a while (back to data-watching; taper on, taper off), and the auto-making capital and tech report disappointments.
European peripheral politics still messy (Portugal, Spain, Italy), although debt raisings satisfactory. Overnight data limited to Japan with continued improvements in activity and sentiment indices. German Producer Prices Inflation in-line, but still far from ECB rate-rise material.
In focus today we have little of note, bar more US Q2 earnings and the meeting between G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, after a week spent watching Bernanke, who’s appeasing comments of the markets (nothing set in stone, September not a done deal) helped equity indices gain ground, making new highs in the US and match the prior week’s highs in the UK.
The UK 100 tested last week’s highs 6660 but fallen back, however, rising highs from 17 Jul and support at 6600 could provide support for another rally break above recent highs with the recent 1-week sideways shift having served as a pause amid the rally from end-June and potential for a revisit of the May highs of 6875 (before Bernanke scared us all). Financials (US + UK) doing well, which many consider the sign of a true bull-run.
In FX, GBP/USD flat around 1.52 with a rising support line from 9 July. Break above 1.53 could open up 1.55 or even 1.57 3-month highs. Watch that US data. Taper on, taper off. EUR/USD also range-bound 1.305-1.3175. A break above 1.32 could open up 3-month highs 1.34.
In Commodities, Gold still under pressure, unable to get test $1300.Flaling highs from early June. US Light Crude Oil off its best levels of $108, but still in uptrend having caught up with Brent crude (spread the narrowest since late 2010) which is trading only around a dollar higher.
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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Japan All Leading Activity Index Improved, but less than hoped
- Japan leading Index Improved
- Japan Coincident Index Improved
- Germany PPI In-line
See Live Macro calendar for all details
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Vodafone hit by Germany and Italy woes
- Sirius Minerals says report fails to back York Potash Project
- Lamprell signs agreement for refinancing of debt facilities
- Costain wins 34 mln stg UK highways contract