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| UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1018 | 114.5 | 12.7 | -44.88 |
| Randgold Resources Ltd | 4402 | 297 | 7.2 | -26.02 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1337 | 69 | 5.4 | -29.41 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 1907 | 92 | 5.1 | 21.93 |
| Antofagasta PLC | 853.5 | 39 | 4.8 | -35.54 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 2833.5 | 124 | 4.6 | -19.31 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1800 | 78.5 | 4.6 | -15.47 |
| Vedanta Resources PLC | 1106 | 44 | 4.1 | -4.41 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Serco Group PLC | 626.5 | -54 | -7.9 | 17.1 |
| G4S PLC | 213 | -12.6 | -5.6 | -16.96 |
| TUI Travel PLC | 370.8 | -5.6 | -1.5 | 31.26 |
| Meggitt PLC | 555 | -7 | -1.2 | 45.17 |
| Aviva PLC | 364 | -3.8 | -1 | -2.41 |
| Bunzl PLC | 1378 | -14 | -1 | 36.57 |
| BP PLC | 464.75 | -4.7 | -1 | 9.4 |
| Reed Elsevier PLC | 791.5 | -6 | -0.8 | 23.29 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,543.40 | 38.45 | 0.59 | 10.95 |
| UK | 14,641.00 | 109.77 | 0.76 | 18.31 |
| FR CAC 40 | 3,868.98 | 28.45 | 0.74 | 6.26 |
| DE DAX 30 | 8,158.80 | 110.04 | 1.37 | 7.18 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 15,460.90 | 169.24 | 1.11 | 17.99 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 3,578.30 | 57.54 | 1.63 | 18.51 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,675.02 | 22.40 | 1.36 | 17.45 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 14,506.25 | 33.67 | 0.0023 | 39.55 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 21,282.62 | -150.46 | -0.0072 | -6.07 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4,973.90 | 8.20 | 0.0017 | 6.99 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 104.76 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 14.13 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 107.665 | -0.26 | -0.24 | -3.24 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1281.25 | -3.05 | -0.24 | -23.53 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 19.9375 | -0.1375 | -0.68 | -34.29 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1410.8 | -1.2 | -0.08 | -8.63 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.517 | – | -0.01 | -6.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.3077 | – | -0.08 | -0.92 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.16 | – | 0.06 | -5.81 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open higher by around 5 points as Asian stocks rose again with the MSCI index (Asian Gauge) heading for its biggest gain since April, with optimism gaining momentum surrounding policy makers from the US and Japan on maintaining stimulus. Metals however retreated with Silver pulling back 1.1%, perhaps on profit-taking after rallying over 5% this week.
The BoJ and the US Federal reserve have both given signals this week that monetary stimulus will be maintained, after the BoE and ECB kept key rates low for the foreseeable future. The advance in global equities in the past year can be attributed to Central banks around the world cutting interest rates, injecting liquidity and buying assets (QE3 in the US for example).
In the US the S&P 500 gained for the sixth day straight, displaying its longest rally since March of this year. After Bernanke’s positive comments on Wednesday, we have pretty much recovered the entire 5.8% slide we saw from May 22nd to June 24th after fears QE3 could be tapered, set in.
The Dow ended positive by 169 points at 15,460, whilst the Nikkei and ASX 200 finished slightly positive and the Hang Seng down by 0.7%.
Bernanke’s comments drove US equity markets higher, following the pace set by Asian and European trading. The star performers were the Dow Jones and S&P 500, both roared to close at record all-time highs.
Clarification from the Fed Chairman that QE tapering WILL happen – but not just yet, has had the opposite impact on the USD with the greenback set to register a weekly decline against most of its peers. However this has resulted in a boost for commodities, notably gold, set for the best weekly performance since October 2011. The yellow metal currently trading $1280, some $100 higher than recent lows.
Oil, both US Light and Brent, received a shot in the arm thanks to Bernanke’s speech but weekly gains could be eroded after a 2% pull back following worse-than-expected weekly jobless claims suggesting the labor market is not out of the woods just yet.
But with Bernanke highlighting weak employment as justification for not implementing tapering immediately, is the latest data yet another example of bad news being good news?
Be aware, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo deliver trading statements this afternoon giving us our first insight into the US banking sector. We could see a reaction in UK bank shares should the results be particularly strong/weak.
In focus today will be US PPI figures at 13:30 and the University of Michigan Confidence figures at 14:55. Will these help push Wall Street through record highs? With China’s GDP data out Monday morning will risk be on or off?
With the UK Index trading around the 6550 for most of yesterday’s trading session, hopefully we have found a new range with 6500 proving support. With 6600 proving resistance a significant move up is needed before we can consider another test of highs.
In FX following Bernanke’s comments the dollar is set for a weekly drop against its major peers. Focus will be on the Fed’s Bullard and Plosser speaking from Jackson Hole. £ vs $ trading at 1.511, £ vs € at 1.116 and € vs $ at 1.307 – testing water ahead of comments from the Fed.
In Commodities, Gold is set for its best week since October 2011 on stimulus outlook now trading at $1282 ($100 off recent lows) WTI Crude fell from 15 months highs to $104.66 following a report from the IEA that global oil supply will exceed demand next year.
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