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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Aviva PLC 346.5 23.4 7.2 -7.1
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 318.8 11.8 3.8 -1.76
TUI Travel PLC 368.8 13.4 3.8 30.55
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 276.7 7.7 2.9 49.73
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 60.91 1.54 2.6 27.12
William Hill PLC 447 11.1 2.5 38.45
John Wood Group PLC 820 18.5 2.3 12.87
Weir Group PLC 2470 55 2.3 31.45
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Associated British Foods PLC 1925 -106 -5.2 23.08
Fresnillo PLC 1077 -43 -3.8 -41.69
British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC 795 -31 -3.8 3.65
Polymetal International PLC 633.5 -21 -3.2 -46.09
Petrofac Ltd 1325 -37 -2.7 -18.36
Evraz PLC 155.1 -4 -2.5 -40.09
Admiral Group PLC 1262 -21 -1.6 8.79
Tate & Lyle PLC 861.5 -12.5 -1.4 13.06
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,687.80 -5.75 -0.09 13.39
UK 14,566.50 90.49 0.63 17.71
FR CAC 40 3,979.07 -3.16 -0.08 9.28
DE DAX 30 8,369.87 7.45 0.09 9.95
US DJ Industrial Average 30 15,233.20 -42.49 -0.28 16.25
US Nasdaq Composite 100 3,465.24 -6.38 -0.18 14.76
US S&P 500 1,650.47 -8.31 -0.5 15.73
JP Nikkei 225 15,138.12 100.88 0.67 45.63
HK Hang Seng Index 48 23,082.68 38.44 0.17 1.88
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,180.80 15.14 0.29 11.44
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 95.235 0.185 0.19 3.74
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 103.645 -0.47 -0.45 -6.87
Gold ($/oz) 1376.65 -8.85 -0.64 -17.84
Silver ($/oz) 22.555 -0.065 -0.29 -25.66
Platinum ($/oz) 1478.8 -6.1 -0.41 -4.22
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.524 -0.24 -6.17
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.2861 -0.17 -2.56
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.185 -0.07 -3.78
UK Index called to open flat

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 10-00     EZ           Construction Output
  • 14-55     US          Uni of Michigan Consumer Confidence

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

  UK 100 called to open flat, despite Asian bourses posting a rebound on more positive Japanese data, with Europe looking set to follow the US close with another muted open, still struggling to get and stay above the now key 6700 level after disappointing US data.

US markets closed lower on poor macro data (jobs, housing, manufacturing, inflation) denting growth sentiment and mixed comments on stimulus doing the same.

The Fed’ Williams (non-FOMC voter) promoted MBS rather than Treasury bond buying and suggested the risk prop of QE3 could be reduced in the summer and stopped by end-13. Raskins said too early to assess impact of QE3, with signs of progress but a way to go before we can say healthy.

WSJ reporter Hilsenrath said despite decline in US inflation alarm bells are not ringing among FOMC officials suggesting Fed might not increase asset purchases either. The EU’s Bank Stress Tests have been delayed until 2014 allowing ECB asset-quality review.

Japan’s Nikkei outperforming thanks to strong rebound in Machine Orders and solid Home Loans growth which, on the back of yesterday’s better GDP report, reinforces the argument that Abe’s intervention is paying off.

Australia slightly higher helped by continued weakness in AUD vs USD which has kept pressure on Gold, down for a 7th straight session, hindered by ETF selling.

China helped by rebound in Conference Board Leading Economic Index talk of reforms to boost the economy, shunning stimulus for fears of worsening the property bubble and excessive government debt situation.  Report out that China’s private consumption to slow this year. Hong Kong and South Korea close for public holidays.

In focus today will be the Eurozone Construction data which is likely to have remained muted if not negative in March, hampered by bad weather and austerity.

In the afternoon, US eyed again with University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence report seen improving in May, adding to debate on Fed tapering asset purchases. Beware again, plenty of central banker speeches on the roster.

The UK 100 failed again around 6710 and pared back to rising support from 7 May at 6675. Our sideways move rather than retracement correction looks to have been in place for 3 days. Can this continue before resumption of longer-term uptrend or could more poor macro data/end of QE3 talk start a correction?

 In FX, GBP/USD off its best levels as talk of QE3 tapering outweighed the up-move following poor US macro data which had weakened the USD on more stimulus hopes. Support at 1.52. EUR/USD back down at recent lows of 1.285 on USD strength. USD/JPY holding above 102. AUD still trading multi-month lows.

 Gold still pressured by stronger USD on ETF selling and QE3 tapering talk. Still potential for downside to April crash lows, with drivers: stronger USD on prospect of Fed tapering, benign inflation negating need for hedge, equity rally and backstops reducing safehaven demand and retail investor fears of holding a declining asset.

Oils maintained rebound despite global growth fears, a stronger USD, and US Shale competition.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.

 

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Japan               Housing Loans                         Solid growth
  • Japan               Machine Orders                      Much better
  • China               Conf Board Leading Index      Improved
  • See Live Macro calendar for all details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Premier Farnell sales rise, expectations unchanged
  • Nat Express wins Essex Thameslink rail extension deal
  • Vesuvius trading in line, sees market improvement
  • Pendragon says trading in line with expectations
  • Headlam says trading recovered in March and April
  • Intertek margin curbed by weak minerals business
  • Lamprell performance year to date in line with expectations
  • Brammer says trading in line
  • Morrisons seals deal with Ocado for online service
  • John Menzies says January-April distribution trading is behind last year

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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