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Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open +15pts, with the index finding some support after yesterday’s strong Italian election-fuelled declines, helped the Fed Chairman Bernanke’s dovish afternoon testimony, making it clear that accommodative policy/QE was here to stay given the struggling growth and labour market and a jump in US consumer confidence.
Bernanke’s comments eased last week’s fears that the easy money flow would be stemmed and risk asset prop removed before markets had truly recovered, helping US close positive although Asian markets mixed. Stability emerged despite messy Italian election situation where some olive branches have been offered for coalition negotiations but hopes are not high, and questions being asked over how ECB backstop works if Italy gives two fingers to conditionality.
Overnight macro data limited to mixed Japanese retail Sales and Australian Q4 Construction Work disappointing with contraction. This morning’s German Jan Import Price Index showed smaller rises than expected, Germany’s Mar GFK Consumer Confidence delivered the small improvement expected, but in Switzerland UBS’ Consumption Indicator deteriorated in Jan. Ratings agencies talking much about effects of Italian election outcome (mixed; no immediate impact but negative if new elections).
In focus today, UK preliminary Q4 GDP seen -0.3% QoQ and flat YoY, but always potential for a revision from prior ‘flash’ reading. Investors will be hoping for an upward revision, as close to breakeven as possible, to bridge the current employment vs. output gap. The UK’s Index of Services (a significant part of GDP) is seen flat in December, meaning a fall back to just 0.1% over last 3 months. Eurozone Confidence data seen largely unchanged.
In the afternoon, US Durable Goods Orders (notoriously volatile) seen dropping back sharply in January after a better than expected pre fiscal-cliff December, while US Pending Home Sales are seen recovering from the bad December, supporting yesterday’s strong readings data (New Home Sales, Cash-Shiller prices).
Away from data, keep an eye on Italy’s bond auction. Yesterday’s auction got away but will the political uncertainty see things get harder. Market yields already higher. Fed Chairman Bernanke testifying again, this time to the House of Representatives and his ECB counterpart Draghi also speaking and with potential comment on Italian leadership stalemate situation.
UK 100 found some support post Italian election and spent overnight flirting with a break to the upside and regaining pre-election lows. Political uncertainty sure to persist but bullish undertone shows markets desire to recover. Rising lows since Monday night. But still in falling 10-day channel. Support at 6275. Resistance still possible at 6300. Ascending triangle suggests possible break to the upside, but resistance at 1-week falling highs around 6350.
In FX, GBP/USD remains weak and sub-1.52 with more-QE statement from Bernanke failing to outweigh possibility of more QE and negative interest rates from BoE. Momentum still at extreme low. At the same time, Sterling’s no weaker following ratings downgrade, likely helped by EUR uncertainty EUR/USD remains in its downtrend having breached 7-month rising support, with single currency suffering but support before 1.30 (last seen early January) and Momentum rebounded after Bernanke’s dovish statement and despite Italian election chaos.
In Commodities, Gold benefited from Bernanke dovishness and appetite for safe-havens amid political risk environment (Italy, Europe and US sequester). Regain of $1600 could renew this level as support. In Oils, US Light Crude found support at $92 after strong 10-day $6 sell-off and closed in on $93 overnight. February downtrend still intact though. Brent Crude remains under more pressure than US light, trading down as low as $112.5
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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Australia Construction Work Worse
- Germany Import Prices Worse
- Germany GFK Consumer Confidence In-line, improved
- Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator Deteriorated
- See Live Macro calendar for all details
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Carillion identifies 650 mln stg of new orders
- Interserve FY revenue 1,958.4 mln stg vs 1,847.5 mln stg
- Restaurant Group profit grows 7 pct, new year starts well
- Restaurant Group says in 2012 revenues grew by 9.25% to 533 million stg
- SEGRO NAV p/share down 13.5% to 294P
- Carillion identifies 650 mln stg of new orders
- Oxford Biomedica says annual revenue flat on year
- British Gas owner Centrica’s annual earnings rise 5 pct
- Mongolia puts pressure on Rio Tinto ahead of Oyu Tolgoi talks
- Industrial component maker Dewhurst warns on profit
- Weir says FY pretax profit up 12 pct
- Carillion beats expectations, sees challenging 2013
- Chemring first-quarter revenue rises
- Petrofac profit rises, confident on 2013
- Henderson profits fall on lower performance fees
- UK’s FSA bans short-selling in Banco Popolare, other Italian stocks
- Bodycote full-year profit rises on strong aerospace sales
- ITV to pay special dividend as earnings rise