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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Evraz PLC 226.7 15.2 7.2 -39.5
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 36.2 2.27 6.7 39.74
Polymetal International PLC 1020 63 6.6 -6.76
Barclays PLC 193.05 11.1 6.1 9.66
Vedanta Resources PLC 928 51 5.8 -8.57
Antofagasta PLC 1157 61 5.6 -4.77
Aviva PLC 344.9 17.4 5.3 14.66
Whitbread PLC 2210 111 5.3 41.3
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 2344 -62 -2.6 -3.74
Tate & Lyle PLC 640.5 -11 -1.7 -9.08
Burberry Group PLC 1312 -15 -1.1 10.72
Reed Elsevier PLC 604 -1 -0.2 16.38
Babcock International Group PLC 932 3 0.3 26.72
United Utilities Group PLC 708 2.5 0.4 16.83
Next PLC 3615 19 0.5 32.08
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 1624 9 0.6 40.36
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK 100 5777.34 119.48 2.11 3.68
11676.4 230.33 2.01 15.57
CAC 40 3509.88 104.09 3.06 11.08
DAX (Xetra) 7167.33 202.64 2.91 21.51
Dow Jones Industrial Average 13292 244.52 1.87 8.79
Nasdaq Comp. 3135.8 66.54 2.17 20.37
S&P 500 1432.12 28.68 2.04 13.88
Nikkei 225 8839.91 -143.87 -1.6 4.55
Hang Seng 19482.57 -70.34 -0.36 5.69
S&P/ASX 200 4316.11 0.44 0.01 6.40
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil Light Sweet Composite 94.8 -0.96 -1 -4.24
Gold Composite 1702.2 7.4 0.44 8.67
Silver Composite 32.645 0.38 1.18 17.53
Palladium Composite 647.8 5.5 0.86 -1.37
Platinum Composite 1580.9 12.9 0.82 12.83
GBP/USD – US $ per £ 1.5932 0.18 2.59
EUR/USD – US$ per Euro 1.2631 0.25 -2.49
GBP/EUR – Euros per £ 1.2613 -0.06 5.13
UK Index is called to up 20 points higher

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30                     UK                          PPI Input/Output
  • 09:30                     UK                          Manufacturing Production
  • 11:00                     German               Industrial Production
  • 13:30                     US                          Change Non-Farm Payrolls
  • 13:30                     US                          Unemployment Rate

See Live Macro Calendar for all data, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK Index called to open +15 points , as the feel-good factor continues after equity markets around the world rallied from the bond buying plan unveiled by ECB President Mario Draghi and the release of better than expected US macro data.  The  UK 100 rose by 120 points and the Dow Jones soared 244 points to 13,292 to post the highest close  since December 2007.  Overnight, Asian markets extended the mood of optimism by taking the biggest daily gain in nearly five weeks.

Draghi’s outlined details for the bond buying programme – Outright Monetary Transactions – in efforts to curb the borrowing costs of distressed EU nations.  This may not quite be the bazooka to relieve the structural problems in Europe, however, a line in the sand was clearly drawn by the Italian.  The ECB will stand ready to buy short dated 1 year – 3 year bonds in the secondary market in an “unlimited” capacity, but under the proviso that countries have already gone to the EFSF and EU.  Confidence will be seen by monitoring the Italian and Spanish bond yields in the coming weeks.

Looking at Commodities , Gold retreated from the year high of above $1710/oz after profit taking but still showing eager bets of stimulus action from central banks.  Crude Oil had a volatile session ranging between $98-$95/barrel, taking effect from US macro data but also a rise in inventories.

Today’s focus is likely to be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) as it is the most widely followed piece of macro data giving an idea of how the most important economy in the world is doing in terms of employment.  The release at 1.30pm is expected to be in the region of 120,000 – but many analyst forecasts have been revised up as a result of the high reading from ADP private-sector survey yesterday.

The Glencore-Xstrata deal will be in the spotlight this morning, with both sets of shareholders due to vote on the $34-billion deal.  If Glencore does not increase their bid from 2.8 new shares, it is more than likely than the leading Xstrata shareholder, Qatar Holding, will scupper the deal.  If Ivan Glasenberg initiates a higher bid, up to 3.25 new shares, more time would be on offer to Xstrata shareholders to mull it over.  Expect last-minute deal negotiations and a possible twist to end the six-month long saga.

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • AUSSIE             Trade Balance                         WORSE
  • EUR                 German Current A/Cs             WORSE
  • EUR                 German Exports MoM            BETTER

 

See Live Macro calendar for all details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Glencore/Xstrata deal stands on the brink of collapse
  • Interserve preferred bidder for £300m NHS contract
  • Petra Diamonds says fissure mines on the block
  • SThree says committed to dividend growth
  • Interserve preferred bidder for 300 mln stg NHS deal

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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