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| UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Kingfisher PLC | 284.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 13.32 |
| Evraz PLC | 258.9 | 2 | 0.8 | -30.9 |
| Johnson Matthey PLC | 2376 | 16 | 0.7 | 23.53 |
| Wolseley PLC | 2900 | 18 | 0.6 | 36.02 |
| Reed Elsevier PLC | 642 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 23.7 |
| Polymetal International PLC | 1175 | 6 | 0.5 | 7.4 |
| BG Group PLC | 1012.5 | 4.5 | 0.4 | -26.44 |
| British American Tobacco PLC | 3121 | 12.5 | 0.4 | 2.14 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Melrose Industries PLC | 223.5 | -8.2 | -3.5 | 15.55 |
| Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC | 350.2 | -7.6 | -2.1 | 12.14 |
| John Wood Group PLC | 726.5 | -13.5 | -1.8 | 13.34 |
| Lloyds Banking Group PLC | 47.915 | -0.77 | -1.6 | 84.96 |
| Admiral Group PLC | 1160 | -16 | -1.4 | 36.15 |
| Hammerson PLC | 488.3 | -6.2 | -1.3 | 35.64 |
| SSE PLC | 1418 | -18 | -1.3 | 9.84 |
| BT Group PLC | 231.1 | -2.9 | -1.2 | 21.06 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 5897.81 | -27.56 | -0.47 | 5.84 |
| UK | 12375 | 15.27 | 0.12 | 22.49 |
| FR CAC 40 | 3641.98 | 21.73 | 0.6 | 15.26 |
| DE DAX 30 | 7612.39 | – | 0 | 29.06 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 13104 | 166 | 1.28 | 7.26 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 3019.51 | 59.2 | 2 | 15.91 |
| US S&P 500 | 1426.19 | 23.76 | 1.69 | 13.41 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 10395.18 | 72.2 | 0.7 | 22.94 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 23252.19 | 597.02 | 2.61 | 26.13 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4705.94 | 56.99 | 1.23 | 16.01 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 92.805 | 1.015 | 1.11 | -6.26 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 111.965 | 2.39 | 2.18 | 4.26 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1683.1 | 7.5 | 0.45 | 7.45 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 30.7225 | 0.3825 | 1.26 | 10.61 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1555.3 | 11.3 | 0.73 | 11.01 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.632 | – | 0.48 | 5.09 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.3281 | – | 0.62 | 2.52 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.229 | – | -0.22 | 2.43 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open +45pts, recovering back too near 18-month highs of 6000, thanks to the US narrowly avoiding (as predicted) its fiscal cliff of tax hikes and spending cuts with a proposal from the Senate (majority democrats) being approved (reluctantly) by the House of Representatives (majority republicans). After weeks of progress/stalemate newsflow, the news has provided a New Year boost to risk appetite after the festive period.
Asian markets have made a strong start on the positive news from the US, with Obama expected to sign the agreement into law today, however, note that the fiscal cliff issue has in fact just been pushed back by 2 months, so while disaster may have been averted at the 11th hour (oh what drama!) we still likely face another round of similar volatility end-Feb. Obama says Democrats still open to compromise but Republicans were fighting for more spending cuts until the last minute and over half of their lower house members voted against the deal.
Overnight, we had macro data from China’s Leading Index showing a slight pullback, this after its official Manufacturing PMI missed expectations and coming in flat on New Year’s morning, following an improvement in the HSBC figure on New Years’ eve which had boosted sentiment on economic recovery. Elsewhere, Australian PMI Manufacturing was flat and still in contraction territory, although its Commodity Price Index improved.
As we move into this New Year 2013 all eyes still on China for signs of an economic rebound, with both higher output a clear sign of global demand but domestic consumption another sign of confidence that global demand remains strong. Japan still weak, but new leader could spice up policy easing. US avoided fiscal cliff, but only for a while – watch this space. Europe still struggling with austerity denting growth and more Brussels summits to endure.
We are back near the highs of last Thursday when 6000 was almost missed by just a whisker. Some may be disappointed that the initial reaction to the fiscal cliff deal has not taken up back there quicker, however, optimists must bear in mind that the deal has only bought an extra 2 months and pessimists should remember that full volume trading may take a few more days to resume. Support 5914, Resistance 6000.
With an aversion of the US fiscal cliff, focus can return to macro data which today will be focused on final PMI Manufacturing survey reports from the main Eurozone nations as well as the UK and US. In Europe, all are expected to remain unchanged from prior estimates, and well in contraction territory on account of austerity and slower global growth. The UK figure is not far from breakeven, but it is the US growth figure that is seen revised even higher. US ISM data is also seen positive in the afternoon.
In FX, GBP/USD higher as risk appetite improves and the safehaven dollar is ditched in favour of equities and commodities. Trading at 16-month high of 1.63. EUR/USD trading back at 8-momth highs of 1.33 with the weaker USD helping. GBP/EUR recovered from its lows of 1.216 but found resistance at 1.233 as both GBP and EUR strengthen against USD.
In Commodities, Gold received a little boost from weaker USD after fiscal cliff deal and now trading back above its 200-day moving average. Support again? Support still also in place thanks to trendline of rising lows from mid-May. Resistance at $1700? Oils also received helping hand from weaker USD US Light breaking above 91.5 and moving on towards $93. Brent Crude broken above $111.5 to test $112.
Best wishes again to you and your families for the New Year 2013.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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