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| UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Marks & Spencer Group PLC | 381.3 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 22.6 |
| Vedanta Resources PLC | 1090 | 22 | 2.1 | 7.39 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 3030 | 45.5 | 1.5 | -3.04 |
| Aberdeen Asset Management PLC | 325.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 53.54 |
| Evraz PLC | 247.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | -33.97 |
| Xstrata PLC | 958.4 | 8.2 | 0.9 | -2 |
| Next PLC | 3571 | 30 | 0.8 | 30.47 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1973 | 15 | 0.8 | 29.21 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Capita Group (The) PLC | 740 | -28.5 | -3.7 | 17.74 |
| Aggreko PLC | 2240 | -79 | -3.4 | 11.06 |
| CRH PLC | 1143 | -40 | -3.4 | -10.7 |
| BT Group PLC | 221.7 | -5.2 | -2.3 | 16.13 |
| Sage Group (The) PLC | 306 | -6.8 | -2.2 | 4.01 |
| British American Tobacco PLC | 3218 | -69.5 | -2.1 | 5.32 |
| Resolution Ltd | 214.3 | -4.4 | -2 | -14.76 |
| SABMiller PLC | 2679 | -54 | -2 | 18.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 5810.25 | -31.49 | -0.54 | 4.27 |
| UK | 11911.8 | -62.83 | -0.52 | 17.9 |
| FR CAC 40 | 3382.78 | -23.75 | -0.7 | 7.06 |
| DE DAX 30 | 7234.53 | -56.68 | -0.78 | 22.65 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 13473.5 | -110.15 | -0.81 | 10.28 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 3065.02 | -47.33 | -1.52 | 17.65 |
| US S&P 500 | 1441.48 | -14.4 | -0.99 | 14.62 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 8596.23 | -173.36 | -1.98 | 1.67 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 (closed) | 20883.57 | -53.71 | -0.26 | 13.29 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4490.74 | -14.61 | -0.32 | 10.70 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 91.965 | 0.085 | 0.09 | -7.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 114.08 | 0.89 | 0.79 | 6.24 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1763.4 | -1.5 | -0.08 | 12.59 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 33.785 | -0.045 | -0.13 | 21.66 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1680.45 | -9.55 | -0.57 | 19.94 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.599 | – | -0.03 | 2.96 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.2852 | – | -0.05 | -0.78 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.2441 | – | 0.02 | 3.69 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for all data, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open -15pts, with Asian markets on the back foot after the negative lead from the US and Europe with worries intensifying over Q3 earnings season (Alcoa reported after the US close), Eurozone uncertainty (cryptic commentary from Eurogroup meeting) and the global growth slowdown.
The China v Japan island dispute has also returned with China’s central bank (PBOC) governor not attending the IMF annual meeting, offsetting yesterday’s hopes of more stimulus.
After cutting global growth forecasts, the IMF maintained its gloomy prognosis warning that the Eurozone debt crisis fix is “critically incomplete” and that it remains a key threat to global financial stability – without swift resolution, the regions banks would likely suffer from capital flight/balance sheet contraction.
On banks, Berlin has complicated progress towards banking union by asking for more influence on the new board of banking supervision. German Chancellor Merkel’s reception in Athens (first visit in 5 years) yesterday also highlighted the continued difficulty region faces in terms of austerity.
US markets closed lower, with the growth-sensitive technology sector (Intel, Apple) underperforming the wider market ahead of earnings season and suggestions that Iran was but a few months from nuclear arms capabilities. Ratings agency S&P highlighted significant risks to world growth while Mervyn King (Bank of England – BoE – governor) saying the UK faces a slow and difficult recovery, not regaining pre-crisis output levels for some time.
Significantly, Aluminium group Alcoa, which kicked off the US Q3 earnings season, cut forecasts for global demand for 2012 (6% vs 7% prev; China, India and Asia slowdown, Europe shrinking, but Russia & US better) which will surely have a knock on to 2013. Q3 profits (excluding one-offs) were slightly ahead of expectations in the first of the stage-managed (I’m a sceptic) reporting from across the pond.
Overnight macro data largely positive, with most notably German Wholesale Prices continuing to rise, however, the strong pace could be an inflationary worry and a negative for the single currency. There is also talk of the much discussed BAE-EADS merger being in doubt with national stakes being a point of disagreement. French industrial/manufacturing production just out is much better than expected.
In FX and Commodities, risk aversion/safe haven seeking yesterday saw GBP/USD pull back to below 1.60 and EUR/USD to test sub-1.285 leading Gold to continue its pullback from recent highs. GBP/EUR slowed up at 1.245 after EUR weakened more than GBP versus USD. Unlike Gold, Oil remains supported by geopolitical tensions from the Middle East (Syria/Turkey, Iran) with price near/at 1-month highs.
Today’s focus will be US Wholesale Inventories providing an idea of how much stock US wholesalers are holding and thus any early signals on consumer spending. Unsold gods piling up, suggesting slowing demand, or falling due to demand exceeding supply. US Job Openings may garner a bit more attention than usual given better NFPs on Friday and employment’s now explicit link to Fed’s QE programme.
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