Today's Main Events
- 10:00 EZ Industrial Production
- 12:30 US Retail Sales
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
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UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
Kazakhmys PLC | 552 | 31.5 | 6.1 | -29.05 |
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 257.2 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 39.18 |
Petrofac Ltd | 1539 | 60 | 4.1 | -5.18 |
Antofagasta PLC | 1129 | 34 | 3.1 | -14.73 |
TUI Travel PLC | 320.3 | 9.2 | 3 | 13.38 |
BAE Systems PLC | 377.6 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 12.08 |
Melrose Industries PLC | 277.1 | 6 | 2.2 | 23.98 |
G4S PLC | 307.5 | 6.1 | 2 | 19.88 |
UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
British Land Co PLC | 555 | -25.5 | -4.4 | -1.25 |
Hammerson PLC | 505.5 | -13 | -2.5 | 3.52 |
Standard Chartered PLC | 1788.5 | -33.5 | -1.8 | 13.66 |
United Utilities Group PLC | 714 | -9.5 | -1.3 | 6.01 |
Aggreko PLC | 1886 | -23 | -1.2 | 8.39 |
Serco Group PLC | 625.5 | -7.5 | -1.2 | 16.92 |
Admiral Group PLC | 1344 | -15 | -1.1 | 15.86 |
Land Securities Group PLC | 823.5 | -9 | -1.1 | 1.23 |
Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
UK UK 100 | 6510.62 | 6.99 | 0.11 | 10.39 |
UK | 14020 | 7.26 | 0.05 | 13.29 |
FR CAC 40 | 3839.97 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 5.46 |
DE DAX 30 | 7966.12 | -18.17 | -0.23 | 4.65 |
US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 14450 | 2.8 | 0.02 | 10.27 |
US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 3242.32 | -10.55 | -0.32 | 7.38 |
US S&P 500 | 1552.48 | -3.74 | -0.24 | 8.86 |
JP Nikkei 225 | 11932 | 248 | 2.13 | 14.78 |
HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 22777 | 217 | 0.96 | 0.53 |
AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5116 | 41.43 | 0.82 | 10.05 |
Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 92.835 | 0.195 | 0.21 | 1.14 |
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 109.655 | -0.17 | -0.15 | -1.46 |
Gold ($/oz) | 1591.95 | 0.45 | 0.03 | -4.99 |
Silver ($/oz) | 29.14 | -0.015 | -0.05 | -3.96 |
Platinum ($/oz) | 1591.7 | -2.1 | -0.13 | 3.09 |
GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.4934 | – | 0.18 | -8.06 |
EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.3049 | – | 0.14 | -1.14 |
GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1445 | – | 0.06 | -7.07 |
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
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UK 100 called to open -15pts (but -10.7pts is from ex-dividends) with the rally-pause and some profit-taking in Asian markets persisting and equities sitting range-bound in the absence of any market moving data. Pressure on shares attributed to a stronger JPY due to some uncertainty ahead of BoJ reshuffle (how accommodative will newbies be? Early impact or not?) hitting Japanese stocks and the Nikkei.
Weakness also linked also to Chinese stocks extending their losing streak with sentiment impacted by soft economic data, government efforts to control the key (but overheated) property market and hawkish commentary from the PBOC (Chinese central bank) removing some support for risk assets.
US stocks also stuttered with macro-economic data drivers limited to an improvement in NFIB Small Business Confidence and higher Job Openings (both had no impact) and with the Technology sector the loser. The US Budget remains a contentious issue with progress between the two political camps barely glacial, after the White House shot down the Republicans’ latest proposal.
European bourses lacked conviction at either end of the risk spectrum as the gains of late are digested; Sp-Italy raised short-term debt with ease despite recent events and contain risk and crisis-not-over comments from the likes of Bundesbank (German central bank) president Weidman kept markets in check (he’s speaking again today).
Latest UK NIESR GDP estimate highlighted the risks of triple-dip recession, especially after very weak Industrial and Manufacturing Production but UK 100 remained resilient.
Overnight macro data was limited to Australia with an improvement in Consumer Confidence (albeit slower than last month) and strong rebound in Investment Lending although an expected recovery in Home Loans did not materialise. This morning French Non-Farm Payrolls have come in worse than expected, weaker than last month’s decline.
In focus today, look out for French and Spanish Consumer Price Inflation which is seen remaining below target in France and well above target in Spain, with the latter accentuating the pinch on consumers with rising costs and austerity hurting. Italy is selling more debt, this time for long-term durations with interest rates keenly eyed in the light of the costs of political deadlock.
European Industrial Production is seen having a weak January, but with an improvement in the annual figure. In the afternoon, US Retail Sales, a key indicator of consumer confidence, are expected to show gains accelerating in Feb after the weak Jan following Xmas and the fiscal-cliff shenanigans.
UK 100 off its highs as we head to the open (a familiar trend as the index just grinds higher). Support available below rising lows from end-Feb, evident in the overnight lows just above rising trendline and rising channel un-breached. Potential for another assault on 6535 highs, but with caution continuing to creep in, we cannot rule out the possibility of a bigger clear-out and pullback to 6415 after the 4.8% gains from end-Feb.
In FX, the GBP/USD still in downtrend with GBP dented by poor Industrial and Manufacturing production and NIESR GDP estimate opening the possibility of triple-dip recession. With budget looking and poor state of UK finances, the weakness may persist, especially with growing confidence in US recovery despite budget deadlock. EUR/USD maintained bounce from recent lows to regain 1.30 despite Eurozone concerns (theoretical backstops all we need?). Support at 200-day moving average 1.295.
In commodities, Gold slowed up after renewed attack on $1600 following EUR/USD quite closely. In Oil, US Light Crude retains bullish bias with progress made to regain $93, while Brent Crude remains in the doldrums, failing to make any progress from its lows of $109. Support, or pause before further weakness and significant narrowing of the spread between the two oils?
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See Live Macro calendar for all details
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research