This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| IMI PLC | 958 | 16 | 1.7 | 26.05 |
| Serco Group PLC | 550 | 5.5 | 1 | 16.03 |
| Compass Group PLC | 692 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 13.26 |
| Polymetal International PLC | 1111 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.55 |
| Croda International PLC | 2292 | 14 | 0.6 | 27.05 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 1394 | 8 | 0.6 | 25.93 |
| Severn Trent PLC | 1524 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.87 |
| Babcock International Group PLC | 960 | 3 | 0.3 | 30.52 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Melrose PLC | 208.9 | -27.1 | -11.5 | 8 |
| Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC | 259.6 | -14.8 | -5.4 | -59.15 |
| Pennon Group PLC | 599.5 | -29 | -4.6 | -16.04 |
| Lloyds Banking Group PLC | 43.975 | -1.725 | -3.8 | 69.75 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1877 | -71 | -3.6 | 22.92 |
| Evraz PLC | 218.6 | -6.9 | -3.1 | -41.66 |
| BT Group PLC | 219 | -6.2 | -2.8 | 14.72 |
| John Wood Group PLC | 770 | -20.5 | -2.6 | 20.12 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 5605.59 | -72.16 | -1.27 | 0.6 |
| UK | 11577 | -106.5 | -0.91 | 14.59 |
| FR CAC 40 | 3341.52 | -40.88 | -1.21 | 5.75 |
| DE DAX 30 | 6950.53 | -92.89 | -1.32 | 17.84 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 12588.3 | 45.92 | 0.37 | 3.03 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 2853.13 | 16.19 | 0.57 | 9.52 |
| US S&P 500 | 1359.88 | 6.55 | 0.48 | 8.13 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 9153.2 | 129.04 | 1.43 | 8.25 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 21272.69 | 113.68 | 0.54 | 15.40 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4361.45 | 24.6 | 0.57 | 7.51 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 87.88 | 0.86 | 0.99 | -11.23 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 109.595 | 1.385 | 1.28 | 2.05 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1722.25 | 10.65 | 0.62 | 9.95 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 32.5675 | 0.3425 | 1.06 | 17.25 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1567.85 | 8.85 | 0.57 | 11.9 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.5914 | – | 0.15 | 2.48 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.2771 | – | 0.26 | -1.42 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.2462 | – | -0.11 | 3.86 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for all data, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open +45pts, with risk-on returning after positive comments emerged from the first post-election fiscal cliff discussions between President Obama and Congressional leaders on Friday, giving US equities a boost into the weekend and Asian markets a kick start for the new week.
An agreement to fast track US fiscal negotiations provided much needed help after a week of deadlock fears and equity losses, and this has continued this morning with opposition leader and likely winner of Japan’s snap election in mid-December reiterating his dovish stance (unlimited asset purchases; Quantitative Easing (QE)), helping the Nikkei higher and the Yen (JPY) to 7-month lows.
It’s another big week for Europe, with the Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday when it will be decided whether Greece gets its next trance of bailout money or not. The head of the IMF, Lagarde, has defended her rather public disagreement with the EU about giving Greece two more years to meet its debt target, preferring a haircut on public sector debt (restructuring).
Some expect no decision for Greece until next month, which would maintain uncertainty. But if it can keep raising short-term government debt, the wait could continue. Aside Greece running out of money, Cyprus looks set to ask for help from Europe having managed to avoid it via help from Russia and internally. The IMF is maintaining calls for more budget cuts in return for help. Ratings agency Moody’s has warned that the Eurozone crisis is in a period of calm but the situation remains fragile. Spain still avoiding bailout request.
Overnight, Macro data provided a mixed message from UK Rightmove House Prices with a reversal of October’s month gains but an improvement in yearly growth. Japanese Industrial data remained stagnant, while Machine Tool order weakness was confirmed in October. Middle Eastern tensions have built this weekend with Israel intensifying its suggestions of ground offensive on the Gaza strip, which continues to support the price of Brent Crude Oil.
The UK 100 Index has regained Friday highs/Thursday lows at 5660, having touched the 3.5yr rising support at 5600. Is this the bounce and start of the recovery we have talked of? The index is still in a 2-week downtrend with likely resistance around 5700.
In FX, the GBP/USD has made new 1-week highs of 1.592 with US QE/fiscal cliff maintaining USD weakness and UK QE postponement seeing GBP strengthen. EUR/USD maintains its uptrend/recovery from Friday’s equity index lows. In commodities, Gold rebounded ion USD weakness regaining $1722, having got back near $1700 mid-Friday. US Crude still around $85 but Brent higher on Middle East tensions and supply concerns.
In focus this week will be more news on further QE from the Bank of England (BoE) after holding fire last month. Clues on its effectiveness will be key. The Eurogroup meeting will be of interest tomorrow for progress and any news on Greece. Data-wise, it’s a light agenda today with just Eurozone construction and US existing home sales. Later in the week, watch out for more US jobless and housing (consumer confidence barometer). No US data at the tail end of the week on account of Thanksgiving holiday weekend. European data comprises Flash PMI (awful last month), final German GDP and German IFO.
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research