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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Vedanta Resources PLC 1070 61 6 -7.52
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC 235.2 10.6 4.7 -17.18
AMEC PLC 1098 19 1.8 9.47
Antofagasta PLC 969 16.5 1.7 -26.81
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 274.4 3.3 1.2 -15.44
British Land Co PLC 554.5 6.5 1.2 -1.33
Petrofac Ltd 1432 14 1 -11.77
Xstrata PLC 1051 6 0.6 -0.76
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 5160 -215 -4 -13.28
ARM Holdings PLC 879.5 -36.5 -4 14.52
Reed Elsevier PLC 759 -30.5 -3.9 18.22
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 412.6 -14.8 -3.5 12.39
ITV PLC 125 -4.1 -3.2 18.82
Tullow Oil PLC 1177 -37 -3 -6.66
Carnival PLC 2201 -67 -3 -6.66
Serco Group PLC 617.5 -18 -2.8 15.42
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,344.12 -76.16 -1.19 7.57
UK 13,755.50 -204.70 -1.47 11.16
FR CAC 40 3,726.16 -28.80 -0.77 2.34
DE DAX 30 7,817.39 -57.36 -0.73 2.69
US DJ Industrial Average 30 14,606.00 55.75 0.38 11.46
US Nasdaq Composite 100 3,224.98 6.38 0.2 6.80
US S&P 500 1,559.98 6.29 0.4 9.38
JP Nikkei 225 12,833.64 199.10 1.58 23.46
HK Hang Seng Index 48 21,831.73 -520.76 -2.29 -3.64
AU S&P/ASX 200 4,891.43 -22.06 -0.45 5.22
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 93.065 -0.385 -0.41 1.39
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 106.325 0.46 0.43 -4.45
Gold ($/oz) 1549.8 -2.6 -0.17 -7.51
Silver ($/oz) 26.7625 -0.0425 -0.16 -11.79
Platinum ($/oz) 1524.9 3.4 0.22 -1.24
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.522 -0.03 -6.29
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.2915 -0.09 -2.15
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1785 0.06 -4.31
UK Index called to open -5pts

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 11-00                     DE           Factory Orders
  • 13-30                     US          Non-Farm Payrolls/Employment

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires

UK 100 called to open -5pts, with Asian bourses again mixed despite a positive US close. Wall Street helped by BoJ’s historic monetary easing announcement (shrugging off poor jobless claims and Eurozone PMI Services), and the BoJ’s news continues to help the Nikkei (highest since Aug ’08) via weaker JPY boosting exporters.

Elsewhere in Asia, equities in the red (China closed) due to concerns surrounding the Korean peninsula, a new Avian flu virus, Samsung suggesting a decline in Q1 profits and general caution ahead of the US jobs report.

Day 2 of new BoJ Governor Kuroda’s first meeting saw him talk down any threat of extreme policy measures generating a dangerous asset bubble (George Soros and Bill Gross concerned), while market sentiment supported by positive Japanese macro survey data releases.

Staying with Central banks after the BoE and ECB held fire yesterday (although the latter may be closer to a rate cut with downside risks to H2 recovery), Fed chatter continued with FOMC dove Yellen saying inflation should be allowed to exceed 2% temporarily to ensure improvement in economic growth and unemployment rates.

Overnight, ratings agencies vocal with Fitch saying Italian banks loan impairments likely to continue through 2013, maintaining its negative outlook based on economic uncertainty, while peer Moody’s maintains its negative outlook on Spain’s banking system.

In focus today we have German Factory Orders which are expected to show an improvement on the weak reading of January. After the weak European PMI data this week for March, any uptick will likely be welcomed in light of Eurozone growth fears and the effects of austerity and global weakness on demand from the major exporter.

In the afternoon all eyes stateside for the monthly US employment report which, while always important given US significance within global growth, is all the more key now that the Fed has explicitly linked its current QE plans to labour market metrics. Consensus expected around 200K to be added, however, after ADP and Jobless Claims headline misses this week, the devil may be in the detail of any upgrades to the prior month.

After the UK 100 pulled all the way back to Cyprus lows of 6340 but has found some support there overnight. Worrying is the break back below 6400, which had been support but may now revert to resistance. This afternoon’s NFP could be pivotal in deciding whether the index recovers to Cyprus highs or makes a more decisive break below March lows and 3-month rising support.

Gold still in its downtrend on stronger USD of recent month and less demand for safehaven from prospect of better macro data leading to a slowing of QE by the Fed, and despite all the other world concerns. Bearish flag pattern almost complete, but downside still possible towards $1500. Note some support at $1550 overnight which was the lows of last July.

In Oils, US light Crude saw another sharp sell-off yesterday to revisit near $92, not seen since 21 March. Resistance now possible at the $94.5 level left behind yesterday as half-way house in the 3-day decline. Brent Crude made new 1-month lows overnight, testing back towards $105.

In FX, GBP/USD rallied back to recent highs of 1.525 after BoE held fire on more QE. Will the level remain resistance? Downside to 1.505 again? EUR/USD, also rallied out of its recent 1.275-1.285 range. Resistance encountered at trendline of 1-month falling highs at 1.295.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.

 

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Japan               Coincident Index         Better
  • Japan               Leading Index              Better

See Live Macro calendar for all details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Punch Taverns may launch restructuring in first half of 2013
  • EasyJet March passengers up 5.3 pct
  • EasyJet narrows first-half guidance to 60-65 mln stg loss
  • AstraZeneca arthritis drug has mixed results in Phase III trial

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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