Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open -25pts, with Asian bourses very mixed overnight despite a largely quiet end-of-week session in the region and another strong finish by US equities helped by a drop in US jobless claims, calming nerves from last Friday’s employment report and the recent FOMC minutes. Concerns on Eurozone back to the fore with meeting today.
Japan’s Nikkei down on some profit taking as the JPY strengthening against the USD on flexibility comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda, meant to imply could last longer rather than might take a break. Korean peninsula remains tenuous to say the least, with US reports suggesting the North may have the ability to launch a nuclear missile.
In China, moved between gains and losses ahead of Sunday’s night’s all-important growth data, with general regional sentiment perhaps dented by concerns on the Eurozone (Slovenia, Cyprus) and an IMF draft report suggesting a worse US growth outlook, although Japan’s was increased.
In focus today, will be the Eurozone finance ministers meeting in Dublin where many questions being asked on the proposed growth strategy for Cyprus to get out of its now bigger bailout hole (€23bn vs. €17bn) and whether a Slovenia crisis is to be feared or not. In addition, will there be news on extension of bailout maturities for Ireland and Portugal. Suggestions Lisbon might need a second bailout even with 7yr extension.
Data-wise, we have UK Construction Output hoped to show some improvement in February. Eurozone Industrial Production seen rebounding in Feb, but remaining weak on an annual basis. US Retail Sales expected to be unimpressive, albeit stable as is Uni of Michigan Consumer Confidence, with both giving further reads on the US economy health.
US Q1 Results season steps up a gear with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kicking things off for the banks. To close the week we also have US Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking and any clues on changes to minutes since the poor Non-Farm Payrolls regarding QE tapering will be much welcome.
After recent bounce, UK 100 found resistance at 4 Apr high of 6430. Support possible at 6340 (Cyprus mid-bailout lows) which were regained yesterday. 6500 target still feasible on easy money policy, but as is 6215 multi-month lows should there be a worsening in global sentiment (Eurozone situation, China growth).
Gold remains around $1560 and still in multi-month downtrend. Downside still possible to $1520, should risk appetite rise sharply. Resistance also likely around $1580 April falling highs.
In Oil, Brent Crude back near recent lows of $104 on concerns over global demand while US has fallen from its highs to test 3-day lows of $93 .
In FX, GBP/USD off best levels of 1.54 continuing rebound from mid-March lows after 3-month decline. Support 1.525? EUR/USD keeps trying higher, but efforts flagging around 1.31 after rally from 1.275. Support at 1.30?
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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Japan Tertiary Industry Index Better than expected
- India Industrial Production Better than expected
- German Wholesale Price Index In-line
- See Live Macro calendar for all details
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Aggreko says Q1 trading in line with view
- Rio Tinto Reports Pit Wall Slide at Bingham Canyon Mine
- Aviva Completion of sale of Malaysian joint venture