Today's Main Events
- 09:30 UK Unemployment
- 10:00 EZ Industrial Production
- 13:30 US Retail Sales -term debt auction
- 15:00 US Business Inventories
- 19:00 US FOMC Minutes
See Live Macro Calendar for all data, incl. consensus expectations
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UK 100 Leaders | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
ITV PLC | 94.6 | 7.8 | 9 | 38.81 |
Lloyds Banking Group PLC | 46.52 | 1.385 | 3.1 | 79.58 |
Meggitt PLC | 374.1 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 6.04 |
Prudential PLC | 865.5 | 16.5 | 1.9 | 35.55 |
Whitbread PLC | 2434 | 41 | 1.7 | 55.63 |
Bunzl PLC | 1030 | 15 | 1.5 | 16.52 |
Compass Group PLC | 700 | 9.5 | 1.4 | 14.57 |
Associated British Foods PLC | 1404 | 19 | 1.4 | 26.83 |
UK 100 Laggards | Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
Anglo American PLC | 1770 | -57.5 | -3.1 | -25.6 |
Centrica PLC | 310.8 | -8.8 | -2.8 | 7.43 |
Vodafone Group PLC | 162.5 | -4.1 | -2.5 | -9.17 |
Polymetal International PLC | 1125 | -24 | -2.1 | 2.83 |
Carnival PLC | 2502 | -42 | -1.7 | 17.69 |
Burberry Group PLC | 1231 | -16 | -1.3 | 3.88 |
Vedanta Resources PLC | 1090 | -13 | -1.2 | 7.39 |
Tesco PLC | 321 | -3.75 | -1.2 | -20.44 |
Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
UK UK 100 | 5786.25 | 18.98 | 0.33 | 3.84 |
UK | 11797.2 | -6.1 | -0.05 | 16.77 |
FR CAC 40 | 3430.6 | 18.95 | 0.56 | 8.57 |
DE DAX 30 | 7169.12 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 21.54 |
US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 12756.2 | -58.88 | -0.46 | 4.41 |
US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 2883.89 | -20.37 | -0.7 | 10.7 |
US S&P 500 | 1374.53 | -5.5 | -0.4 | 9.3 |
JP Nikkei 225 | 8664.73 | 3.68 | 0.04 | 2.48 |
HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 21401.47 | 212.82 | 1 | 16.09 |
AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4388.37 | 8.56 | 0.2 | 8.18 |
Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 85.555 | 0.315 | 0.37 | -13.58 |
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 108.335 | -0.065 | -0.06 | 0.88 |
Gold ($/oz) | 1727.65 | 1.35 | 0.08 | 10.29 |
Silver ($/oz) | 32.6225 | 0.1225 | 0.38 | 17.45 |
Platinum ($/oz) | 1598.3 | 12.1 | 0.76 | 14.07 |
GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.589 | – | 0.1 | 2.32 |
EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.2722 | – | 0.09 | -1.79 |
GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.2489 | – | -0.02 | 4.09 |
See Live Macro Calendar for all data, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open -5pts, despite Asian markets posting gains on news that Greece had raised what it needed to cover this week’s debt maturity, the idea of Athens being given a lump sum payment (rather than 3 separate disbursements) and the possibility of a Spanish bailout request doing the rounds. Sentiment also helped by Australian consumer confidence jumping to a 19-month high and no surprises from the Chinese political transition.
US markets under pressure at the close, reversing gains fuelled by speculation of Spain giving in and asking for help and Greece being given more money in one go, to give it (and markets) more breathing room. This countered troika quarrels and slow progress on the banking supervisor role in Europe, but the post-election correction pressure was maintained, not helped by ratings agency Fitch staying the Banking sector profit outlook was stable, but warning on levels in 2013.
In the banking sector Goldman Sachs chief Bernstein called for the industry not to cut too aggressively now only to over-hire at the top, again. Note also that as part of Obama’s fiscal cliff discussions with business leaders, the lack of banking sector participants. Could shunning Wall Street offset the more accommodating stance of the Republicans? Better news comes from US giant Cisco, however, which sees signs of a wider rebound after a recovery in demand in the US. Home Depot results also fared well for the US housing market
Results out this morning from Sainsbury (H1 fiscal 2013) show earnings per share (underlying) in-line with expectations, with sales +4.0% (4.1% inc. fuel), like-for-like sales +1.7% and focus on costs helping margins expand by more – profits before tax +5.4%, earnings per share +9.4%. The interim dividend has also been increased by 6.7%. The company points to outperformance of the market and market share increasing to the highest in almost a decade. Says wider economic situation remains challenging, but sees itself well positioned.
The UK 100 index remains under pressure with highs of 5790 holding yesterday despite the late rally. Rising lows from yesterday however, could be a signal of gaining strength and if we break back above 5800, could provide the platform for a renewed assault on major highs. Support still available around 5715, although a break of this would likely see the current correction continue. Recent sideways move just a pause before direction elected.
In FX, GBP/USD found some support for recent falls after UK inflation came in hotter than expected (more chance of rate hike, which is GBP positive). Support also for EUR/USD, with EUR benefiting from Greek debt auction and possibility of lump sum aid payment. In commodities, Gold volatile yesterday but settled overnight with resistance at $1730. Nonetheless, GBP inflation and EUR positivity should keep USD under pressure, helping the metal. US Crude remains around $85/86 while Brent Oil may shows rising lows at $108.
In focus today will be UK employment figures, and while no great changes are expected from last month, combined with worrying consumer inflation (CPI) data yesterday the Bank of England’s (BoE) quarterly inflation report will be very interesting today in terms of whether growth and inflation forecasts are amended (always too optimistic). Eurozone Industrial Production is unlikely to provide much respite from regional growth fears especially after the poor ZEW survey data yesterday.
US Retail Sales are expected to reverse from their strong gains of last month and against the grain of positive data from the nation to dip negative, although US Business inventories are seen showing stable growth. In the evening, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) FOMC minutes are due to be published but nothing big expected given the meeting’s proximity to the Presidential elections.
could which could provide figures for consumer and producers. Thereafter, ZEW surveys on Germany and the Eurozone will be of interest given the poor run of macro data (manufacturing/services/industry) out of the region and its supposed backbone last week and ahead of the GDP figures later this week. The Greek debt auction will garner much attention given the funding predicament Athens has this week with debt maturity.
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