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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
ITV PLC 94.6 7.8 9 38.81
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 46.52 1.385 3.1 79.58
Meggitt PLC 374.1 7.9 2.2 6.04
Prudential PLC 865.5 16.5 1.9 35.55
Whitbread PLC 2434 41 1.7 55.63
Bunzl PLC 1030 15 1.5 16.52
Compass Group PLC 700 9.5 1.4 14.57
Associated British Foods PLC 1404 19 1.4 26.83
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Anglo American PLC 1770 -57.5 -3.1 -25.6
Centrica PLC 310.8 -8.8 -2.8 7.43
Vodafone Group PLC 162.5 -4.1 -2.5 -9.17
Polymetal International PLC 1125 -24 -2.1 2.83
Carnival PLC 2502 -42 -1.7 17.69
Burberry Group PLC 1231 -16 -1.3 3.88
Vedanta Resources PLC 1090 -13 -1.2 7.39
Tesco PLC 321 -3.75 -1.2 -20.44
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 5786.25 18.98 0.33 3.84
UK 11797.2 -6.1 -0.05 16.77
FR CAC 40 3430.6 18.95 0.56 8.57
DE DAX 30 7169.12 0.36 0.01 21.54
US DJ Industrial Average 30 12756.2 -58.88 -0.46 4.41
US Nasdaq Composite 100 2883.89 -20.37 -0.7 10.7
US S&P 500 1374.53 -5.5 -0.4 9.3
JP Nikkei 225 8664.73 3.68 0.04 2.48
HK Hang Seng Index 48 21401.47 212.82 1 16.09
AU S&P/ASX 200 4388.37 8.56 0.2 8.18
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 85.555 0.315 0.37 -13.58
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 108.335 -0.065 -0.06 0.88
Gold ($/oz) 1727.65 1.35 0.08 10.29
Silver ($/oz) 32.6225 0.1225 0.38 17.45
Platinum ($/oz) 1598.3 12.1 0.76 14.07
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.589 0.1 2.32
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.2722 0.09 -1.79
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.2489 -0.02 4.09
UK Index called to open -5pts

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30     UK          Unemployment
  • 10:00     EZ           Industrial Production
  • 13:30     US           Retail Sales -term debt auction
  • 15:00     US           Business Inventories
  • 19:00     US           FOMC Minutes

See Live Macro Calendar for all data, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -5pts, despite Asian markets posting gains on news that Greece had raised what it needed to cover this week’s debt maturity, the idea of Athens being given a lump sum payment (rather than 3 separate disbursements) and the possibility of a Spanish bailout request doing the rounds. Sentiment also helped by Australian consumer confidence jumping to a 19-month high and no surprises from the Chinese political transition.

US markets under pressure at the close, reversing gains fuelled by speculation of Spain giving in and asking for help and Greece being given more money in one go, to give it (and markets) more breathing room. This countered troika quarrels and slow progress on the banking supervisor role in Europe, but the post-election correction pressure was maintained, not helped by ratings agency Fitch staying the Banking sector profit outlook was stable, but warning on levels in 2013.

In the banking sector Goldman Sachs chief Bernstein called for the industry not to cut too aggressively now only to over-hire at the top, again. Note also that as part of Obama’s fiscal cliff discussions with business leaders, the lack of banking sector participants. Could shunning Wall Street offset the more accommodating stance of the Republicans? Better news comes from US giant Cisco, however, which sees signs of a wider rebound after a recovery in demand in the US. Home Depot results also fared well for the US housing market

Results out this morning from Sainsbury (H1 fiscal 2013) show earnings per share (underlying) in-line with expectations, with sales +4.0% (4.1% inc. fuel), like-for-like sales +1.7% and focus on costs helping margins expand by more – profits before tax +5.4%, earnings per share +9.4%. The interim dividend has also been increased by 6.7%.  The company points to outperformance of the market and market share increasing to the highest in almost a decade. Says wider economic situation remains challenging, but sees itself well positioned.

The UK 100 index remains under pressure with highs of 5790 holding yesterday despite the late rally. Rising lows from yesterday however, could be a signal of gaining strength and if we break back above 5800, could provide the platform for a renewed assault on major highs. Support still available around 5715, although a break of this would likely see the current correction continue. Recent sideways move just a pause before direction elected.

In FX, GBP/USD found some support for recent falls after UK inflation came in hotter than expected (more chance of rate hike, which is GBP positive). Support also for EUR/USD, with EUR benefiting from Greek debt auction and possibility of lump sum aid payment. In commodities, Gold volatile yesterday but settled overnight with resistance at $1730. Nonetheless, GBP inflation and EUR positivity should keep USD under pressure, helping the metal. US Crude remains around $85/86 while Brent Oil may shows rising lows at $108.

In focus today will be UK employment figures, and while no great changes are expected from last month, combined with worrying consumer inflation (CPI) data yesterday the Bank of England’s (BoE) quarterly inflation report will be very interesting today in terms of whether growth and inflation forecasts are amended (always too optimistic). Eurozone Industrial Production is unlikely to provide much respite from regional growth fears especially after the poor ZEW survey data yesterday.

US Retail Sales are expected to reverse from their strong gains of last month and against the grain of positive data from the nation to dip negative, although  US Business inventories are seen showing stable growth. In the evening, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) FOMC minutes are due to be published but nothing big expected given the meeting’s proximity to the Presidential elections.

could which could provide  figures for consumer and producers. Thereafter, ZEW surveys on Germany and the Eurozone will be of interest given the poor run of macro data (manufacturing/services/industry) out of the region and its supposed backbone last week and ahead of the GDP figures later this week. The Greek debt auction will garner much attention given the funding predicament Athens has this week with debt maturity.

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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Aussie             Consumer Confidence             Better
  • See Live Macro calendar for all details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Centamin reports Q3 revenue of $103.1 million
  • BAE Systems agrees settlement with Trinidad and Tobago
  • Darty H1 revenue fell by 2.2 pct in euros, 2.3 pct in local currency
  • Bwin.party says acts in compliance with laws
  • SSE says increases stake in three producing gas fields
  • WH Smith sales fall in first 10 weeks
  • Moneysupermarket.com says third quarter was in line with expectations
  • Centamin operations continue as normal, Q3 profit rises
  • Carphone posts H1 sales rise at CPW Europe
  • Pace says full-year revenue expected to be flat
  • ICAP sees revenue fall 14 percent for first half
  • Sainsbury outshines Tesco with profit rise
  • SIG says on track to meet expectations
  • SSE Plc first-half profit rises
  • Tullow Oil sees annual production in line with guided range
  • Britvic, A.G. Barr agree merger
  • UK builder Barratt says on track for higher profits this year
  • AMEC says trading in line, on track for growth
  • BT agrees 64 mln stg takeover of Tikit
  • Great Portland places just under 10 pct of company
  • Great Portland H1 NAV up 5 pct
  • Carlyle seals 1st Africa deal with $210 mln stake

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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