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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Standard Life PLC 380.7 28.2 8 14.63
Evraz PLC 166 7.8 4.9 -35.88
Randgold Resources Ltd 5045 214 4.4 -15.21
Glencore International PLC 327.4 13.45 4.3 -6.8
Petrofac Ltd 1336 52 4 -17.68
Xstrata PLC 993 38 4 -6.23
AMEC PLC 1012 35 3.6 0.9
Fresnillo PLC 1129 37 3.4 -38.87
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Centrica PLC 376.9 -16.2 -4.1 12.98
Legal & General Group PLC 167.3 -6.8 -3.9 14.9
Associated British Foods PLC 1950 -49 -2.5 24.68
Rexam PLC 509.5 -12.5 -2.4 16.86
Tesco PLC 365.2 -8.6 -2.3 8.69
Old Mutual PLC 201.3 -4 -1.9 12.96
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 960.5 -18.5 -1.9 41.04
Bunzl PLC 1255 -23 -1.8 24.38
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,431.76 25.64 0.4 9.05
UK 13,895.00 77.64 0.56 12.28
FR CAC 40 3,842.94 59.89 1.58 5.54
DE DAX 30 7,759.03 100.82 1.32 1.93
US DJ Industrial Average 30 14,676.30 -43.16 -0.29 12.00
US Nasdaq Composite 100 3,269.65 0.32 0.01 8.28
US S&P 500 1,578.79 0.01 0 10.70
JP Nikkei 225 13,926.08 82.62 0.6 33.97
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,385.00 201.31 0.91 -1.20
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,102.43 86.20 1.72 9.76
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 91.86 0.35 0.38 0.08
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 102.105 0.79 0.78 -8.24
Gold ($/oz) 1445.4 16.1 1.13 -13.74
Silver ($/oz) 23.205 0.085 0.37 -23.52
Platinum ($/oz) 1441.05 8.45 0.59 -6.67
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.5315 0.25 -5.7
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3039 0.18 -1.21
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1746 0.07 -4.63
UK Index called to open flat

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09-30     UK          GDP & Index or Services
  • 13-30     US           Jobless Claims
  • 12-45+   US           Q1 Results: UPS, 3M, ConocoPhilips, Colgate, Exxon, Amazon, Starbucks

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

  UK 100 called to open flat, after Asian equities were mostly higher overnight during a subdued trading session on account of Australia and New Zealand closed for holidays and a lack of overnight data to guide sentiment.

 Japan benefiting from continued JPY weakness ahead of Friday’s BoJ policy meeting. South Korean GDP beat estimates despite FX competition on exports from Japan and on-going geopolitical tensions.

 US markets closed flat, supported still by earnings season (EPS beat, Revenues light – good for margins) and stimulus addicts satisfied by hopes that that new signs of macro-economic fragility mean continued/renewed central bank intervention to help out (Fed & ECB).

 US Telecoms major Verizon reported to be preparing to buyout JV partner Vodafone’s stake in Verizon Wireless (up to $100bn cash + stock). Keep an eye on shares in the UK giant today. Apple weighed on Tech sentiment with investors harder to please than customers, with the former wanting products more than share buybacks.

 In Europe, still optimism that Italy can arrive at a solution to its political deadlock, however, Slovenia has revealed its banks need €900m in recapitalisation. Can this one be as well managed as Cyprus (I mean quick, rather than being sarcastic about messy resolution).

 In focus today will be the UK and an update as to whether the Chancellor has done a Houdini twice in one week; Government borrowing dipping first (only just in 2012) and Q1 hopefully showing at least stable GDP growth, avoiding the dreaded triple-dip recession (only just, again). Beware revisions to prior quarters could also see triple-dip avoided or even compounded.  The key UK Services sector is seen showing tepid growth in Feb.

 Spanish unemployment unlikely to bring good news, US Weekly Jobless Claims are seen flat and a raft of US majors including UPS, 3M, Conocophilips, Colgate, Exxon, Amazon, Starbucks report Q1 results. The trend this week has been to beat EPS consensus but miss on revenues. Bad news for sales, but good news for cost cutting & margins.

UK 100 tested 3 & 11 April highs of 6430 yesterday but found resistance overnight around 6440. Risk appetite still there. Likely just taking a breather awaiting UK GDP data at 9.30am. Potential range now 6350-6500, which could help with renewal of long-term uptrend.

 Expectations of more currency weakening QE by the Fed to offset poor macro data (housing, manufacturing, durable goods) saw USD weaken, benefiting commodities.

 Gold continues its rebound, regaining $1440 levels last seen mid-month, breaking above Monday’s highs which could now serve as support (depending on QE sentiment).

 Oils maintaining their recoveries with Brent Crude revisiting mid-month levels of $102 this morning, while US Light Crude did the same touching $92 overnight.

 In FX, GBP/USD weaker but potentially has a trendline of falling highs and thus resistance to contend with at 1.534. Support still at 1.52. UK GDP and US GDP tomorrow could both have a big impact on the major pair. EUR/USD pulled back from overnight highs of 1.306 (potentially broken above falling highs) with opposing forces of expectations of more Fed QE and an ECB rate cut ruling the pair. These and US GDP likely to be near term drivers.

 For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • N/A
  • See Live Macro calendar for all details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Croda profit grows on lower interest costs; reiterates outlook
  • Kazakhmys says Q1 copper output ticks higher
  • BAT confident on earnings outlook after good start to year
  • Go Ahead says full – year expectations unchanged
  • Filtrona quarterly revenue grows 12 percent
  • Admiral turnover dips as UK car insurance premiums fall
  • Dialight says confident in meeting market expectations
  • Taylor Wimpey – Sales at upper end of firm’s expectations
  • Russia’s Polymetal Q1 gold production up 16 pct
  • Cobham says full year outlook unchanged, order book stable
  • AstraZeneca Q1 sales tumble as generic losses bite deep
  • SDL remains confident on year despite muted start
  • St. James’s Place says funds under management 39 bln stg
  • Diageo launches $3.25 billion fixed rate bonds
  • Unilever sales growth misses forecasts

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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