Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open +15pts (ex-divs -7.4pts), with Asian bourses mostly higher thanks to a positive – albeit muted – handover from Wall Street which hit new highs after dovish rhetoric from Fed speakers maintained hopes the Fed will remain highly accommodative, the World bank was relatively upbeat on the US outlook (but downgraded Eurozone growth) and JPMorgan chief survived a vote to keep him as both CEO and Chairman.
Fed members Dudley and Bullard talked down the prospect of QE3 tapering ahead of Chairman Bernanke’s testimony and publication of the latest FOMC minutes which both have the potential to dictate USD and risk appetite direction (see Gold swings). Messages from Fed members been very mixed of late, like the macro data being reported.
Australia lagging Asia-Pacific peers on the back of a deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Confidence in May. A report on China suggests the crackdown on hot money may ease some currency and credit pressure but may expose export weakness as global growth lags.
Japan the outperformer, hitting fresh all-time highs after the BoJ left monetary policy unchanged but signalling it will increase the monetary base at a high rate and boosted its economic assessment, further suggesting Abenomics is paying off.
In focus today on the meeting/speech front will be the Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony with markets looking for any clues as to when its QE3 asset purchases will slow or indeed stop, and the latest Fed FOMC minutes. EU leaders also meeting in Brussels.
BoE MPC minutes will be of interest ahead of the governor change and in light of yesterday’s softer inflation data and after incoming Mark Carney warned Europe against a lost decade of austerity (á la Japan), this as the IMF urges the UK to ease its pace of reforms which may include selling its stakes in bailed out LLOY (in profit) and RBS (at a loss).
In terms of macro data, look out for UK Retail Sales seen showing a tepid rebound in April after March was impacted by cold weather. UK Public Sector Finances seen improving with less borrowing in April. UK CBI Sales Trends seen mixed with prices down but orders improved. US Existing Home Sales seen improving in April, of interest as consumer sentiment gauge and after last week’s improved permits but drop in starts.
The UK 100 maintains its upward grind testing yet another round number hurdle (6,800) in its quest to revisit all-time highs of 6950 in 1999. Equities still benefiting from expectations of continued central banks’ accommodative stance. Many still calling for a bigger digestion correction. Could Bernanke of Fed minutes spoil the party?
In FX, GBP/USD tested down to 1.51 yesterday and remains under pressure from USD strength on prospect of QE3 tapering. EUR/USD off its best levels 1.295, but rebound still in progress from May lows at 1.28. USD/JPY holding above 102. AUD found a bit of strength but still in major decline; still potential for correction to persist to June 2012 lows of 0.9585.
Gold volatile yesterday with $1360-1400 rang and now sitting in the middle. Still pressure from USD sentiment which may keep can on the yellow metal with Fed comments today key. USD drivers still; Fed tapering, benign inflation negating need for hedge, equity rally and backstops reducing safehaven demand and retail investor fears of holding a declining asset (ETF selling).
US light Crude found some support at $95.5 but upside potential limited by strong USD and recent highs of $97.5. Nonetheless, help derived from economic growth hopes. Brent Crude a bit weaker, breaking below week-lows $103.5. Upside also capped at $105.5
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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- UK Interest Rate/Monetary Base In-line, unchanged
- Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Worse
- Aussie Westpac Consumer Confidence Deteriorated
See Live Macro calendar for all details
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Songbird Estates wins approval for Shell Centre plans
- Carillion wins 400 mln stg redevelopment contract
- HICL Infrastructure profit up, eyes acquisitions
- Chariot secures extension on Namibia blocks, seeks partner
- Shaftesbury profit falls on high refurbishment activity
- IMIC agrees $190 mln offer for Afferro Mining
- Hogg Robinson full-year profit up 1 pct
- Britvic interim dividend 5.4p per share
- Great Portland Estates NAV rises 10.7 pct on strong London market
- Rolls-Royce wins order to power 23 aircraft from lessor CIT
- Lonmin says no agreement reached on union recognition
- Lloyds says won’t need to issue new equity, CoCos
- Intermediate Capital Group profit falls
- Blinkx agrees video deal with Tizen
- Cable & Wireless Comms core earnings edge up
- UK utility SSE posts 5.8 pct profit rise, hikes dividend
- UK Mail full-year profit buoyed by e-retail growth