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Morning Report - 16 June 2017

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Ashtead Group 1600 23.0 1.5 1.3
HSBC Holdings 686.7 6.0 0.9 4.5
Royal Bank of Scotland Group 251.5 1.6 0.6 12.0
London Stock Exchange Group 3655 23.0 0.6 25.4
Prudential 1773.5 5.5 0.3 9.0
Yesterday’s UK Index Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 1558 -122.0 -7.3 27.6
Persimmon 2259 -163.0 -6.7 27.2
Next 4037 -264.0 -6.1 -19.0
Anglo American 995.1 -63.9 -6.0 -14.2
Randgold Resources 7100 -365.0 -4.9 10.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,419.4 -55.0 -0.74 3.9
UK 19,553.7 -421.0 -2.11 8.2
FR CAC 40 5,216.9 -26.4 -0.50 7.3
DE DAX 30 12,691.8 -114.2 -0.89 10.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 21,360.0 -14.5 -0.07 8.1
US Nasdaq Composite 6,165.5 -29.4 -0.47 14.5
US S&P 500 2,432.5 -5.5 -0.22 8.7
JP Nikkei 225 19,943.3 111.4 0.56 4.3
HK Hang Seng Index 50 25,648.3 83.0 0.32 16.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,774.0 10.8 0.19 1.9
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.57 0.04 0.1 -6.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.07 0.14 0.3 -5.8
Gold ($/oz) 1255.25 -0.25 -0.02 -2.1
Silver ($/oz) 16.74 0.01 0.07 -4.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2773 0.1 -0.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1149 0.00 -1.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1457 0.10 0.3
UK 100 called to open +20pts at 7440

UK 100 : 1-month; hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)  

UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7440, extending the rebound from 1-month support at 7380. Bulls are glad we are already above 7435 overnight highs, eyeing potential for a re-test of the mid-week breakdown at 7490. Bears are watching for signs that overnight rising support at 7430 might give way to open the door for another sell-off. Watch levels: Bullish 7450, Bearish 7430.

A positive opening call comes as Asian bourses shrug off a negative close on Wall St where Tech had another bad session. Markets are welcoming positivity on the Greek debt front, offsetting that more hawkish Fed stance from mid-week, and deal well with ever-present global geopolitical uncertainty.

Japan’s Nikkei outperforms after the Bank of Japan left policy on hold, appeasing fears of an early QE-exit, helping financials via a weaker JPY, while Telecoms fared even better after the bank maintained an upbeat stance. Australia’s ASX is benefiting from gains for Utilities and Real Estate. Miners welcome Crude Oil prices off their lows, however, big name dual-listed Miner BHP Billiton is as weak on the news of a replacement Chairman.

US equity markets finished lower across the board on Thursday as Tech sector weakness, lead most notably by ‘FAANG’ stocks, Unsurprisingly, the Tech-focused Nasdaq underperformed other major bourses, closing 0.5% lower having been down as much as 1%, although the Tech leak also weighed on the S&P 500. The Dow Jones outperformed, however closed just shy of flat, as laggard Goldman Sachs offset gains for Manufacturing names.

Crude Oil prices continue to trade close to 7-month lows, however an overnight rally from lows thanks to the US dollar rally hitting resistance sees both Brent and US benchmarks test channel ceilings. Brent Crude needs a break above $47.20 to spell an extended recovery, while a retracement to $46.80 would get the bears interested. US crude will need to complete a test of falling highs resistance at $44.60 for a march to $45 and above, while on the down side $44.30 could warn of fresh lows.

Gold traded at a 3-week low overnight, with the US dollar rally to fresh June highs weighing heavily on sentiment alongside some abatement in safe haven demand. However, the precious metal has found support at $1252, halting the sell-off that began after the US Fed’s rate hike on Wednesday. Having traded between $1252-1255 overnight, investors will be looking for a comprehensive break above the channel ceiling to $1257 or above for the recovery to continue, while and move below $1250 could signal further bearishness.

Today’s calendar will see focus on Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (CPI;10am). Forecasts are for May price increases to have fallen back negative (-0.1% vs April 0.4%), while the annual pace for both headline (1.4% vs 1.9% prev) and core (0.9% vs 1.2% prev) are confirmed sharply slower, highlighting the ECB’s woes in regaining its 2% regional inflation target.

US data this afternoon begins with Housing Starts and Building Permits (1:30pm), with both prints expected to increase (the former after three months of declines). The University of Michigan Sentiment (3pm) is expected to hold around 97 for the fourth straight month, while the Labour Market Conditions Index (3pm) continues to edge back from March’s 2-year high. Finally, the Baker Hughes Rig Count (6pm) will be looking for its longest streak of increase in three decades to continue by notching its 22nd consecutive weekly increase.

Away from data, the Eurogroup meeting continues its Luxembourg. Last night saw Greece and its creditors keep the country’s bailout on track (€8.5bn loan disbursed to allow it make summer debt payments) although important decisions about debt relief were once again postponed. Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, policymakers are once again free to air their thoughts on monetary policy, with centrist voter Kaplan breaking the silence at 5:45pm in a Q&A session.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • NHS cyber – attack was ‘launched from North Korea’ – BBC
  • Tesco says inflation in business in Q1 “significantly below market trend”
  • Tesco reports strongest UK sales growth for seven years
  • BHP names packaging guru MacKenzie as new chairman
  • BTG says study shows efficacy of its Ekos therapy for post – thrombotic syndrome
  • Barclays hirings under U.S. scrutiny – FT
  • Amec Foster gets engineering contract worth A$298m
  • Avanti Communications says entered $100m facility
  • RollsRoyce says 2017 started well, all units performing in line
  • RollsRoyce names Beverly Goulet as non – executive director
  • Sthree H1 group gross profit rises
  • London copper eyes biggest drop in six weeks on dlr
  • Gold hits 3 – week low as dollar firms
  • Oil sits near half – year lows as global supply overhang weighs

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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