Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open +30pts, with risk appetite higher in Asia-Pacific and commodities benefiting from renewed interest (optimism, or short covering?), from less gloomy observations from the IMF/G20 meetings in Washington, helping offset some of this week’s dominant pessimism, derived from China.
In Japan, the Nikkei higher is on a weaker JPY after comments from PM Abe that there was no opposition to its policies at the G20 meetings. In Australia, resources-related stocks rebounding on optimism.
Equities in China higher despite mixed macro data and a 2013 GDP forecast cut by Goldman Sachs following last weekend’s softer Q1 readings, with consumer names benefiting from a government economist suggesting growth will rebound this year, increased foreign interest in the A-share market (normally only available to mainland citizens) and expectations of a widening of the Yuan/Renminbi trading band next week.
Overnight macro data saw an improvement in China’s Flash Business sentiment, but stagnation in its Conference Board Leading Economic Index. In Japan, while industrial activity rebounded in February, sentiment indices also nudged up a touch.
This morning, German Producer Prices softer than expected, likely reducing expectations of a rate hike by the ECB, with inflation still below target in the Eurozone as austerity impacts growth and uncertainty elsewhere in the world impacts Europe’s exporting giant.
In the US last night, market lower on jobless data and poor Philly Fed and Leading indicator readings. After the close, sentiment not helped by quarterly results from IBM (profits and revenues missed expectations), Google (better profits but revenues missed as ad prices slipped due to mobile usage growth) and Microsoft (better, but low uptake of Windows 8 wiped out growth in core business).
In the FT this morning, UK Chancellor seen squaring up to IMF next month in a battle of credibility on Plan A on austerity and deficit reduction which the fund sees hindering growth at a time when it is needed. Comments from incoming BoE governor Carney suggest Osborne has an ally.
UK 100 tested recent 6225 lows again yesterday and remains in a tight range (6225-6275). Breakout to the upside or downside? Long-term multi-month uptrend still intact, but rebound needed as confirmation of macro pressures being overcome.
Gold rebounded to above $1400 (support?) thanks to a weakening in the USD following weaker US macro data leading to expectations of continued QE3 (maybe even more). Less gloomy comments from G20/IMF also likely seeing USD less required as a safehaven, seeing rotation back into risk.
In Oil, Brent Crude rallied back towards $100, off lows of $97 on weaker USD while US Light Crude is doing the same, bouncing from lows of $86 towards prior highs of $89. Both benefiting from more economic optimism (well less gloomy anyway).
In FX, GBP/USD rallied back to 1.532, after a bounce from near 1.52. Sitting equidistant from support and resistance, benefiting from less need for USD safehaven and the GBP saved from more QE for another month or so. EUR/USD also off worse levels of 1.30 yesterday, but 1.32 recent high a likely hurdle.
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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- China MNI Flash Business Sentiment Improved
- China Conf Board Leading Econ Index Deteriorated
- Japan All Industry Improved
- Japan Coincident/Leading Indices Improved
- German Producer Price Inflation Worse
- See Live Macro calendar for all details
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- William Hill – Q1 net revenue grew by 15 percent
- Spectris says first-quarter sales fall by 8 pct
- Flybe sees 2012/13 loss at lower end of its guidance
- Mears to buy ILS Group, raise 19.7 mln stg in placing
- BowLeven says Cameroon tests surpass expectations
- RPS buys Knowledge Reservoir Group for up to $20 mln
- Dart says FY profit will beat market expectations
- Games Workshop trading in line with internal expectations
- Great Portland Estates signs London pre-let with Bridgepoint Advisers
- Brightside full year profit rises 29 pct
- Anglo American copper, iron ore tick higher in Q1