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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
ARM Holdings PLC 986.5 45.5 4.8 28.45
Glencore Xstrata PLC 339 10.25 3.1 -3.5
Experian PLC 1189 26 2.2 21.33
Tullow Oil PLC 1073 16 1.5 -14.91
Aggreko PLC 1651 21 1.3 -5.11
GlaxoSmithKline PLC 1619 20.5 1.3 21.27
Vodafone Group PLC 210.15 2.25 1.1 36.06
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 297.2 2.7 0.9 13
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Admiral Group PLC 1227 -53 -4.1 5.78
Kingfisher PLC 408.5 -11.5 -2.7 43.79
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 75.99 -2.01 -2.6 58.59
easyJet PLC 1325 -33 -2.4 73.09
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 312.1 -7.7 -2.4 68.89
London Stock Exchange Group PLC 1618 -34 -2.1 48.71
Persimmon PLC 1154 -24 -2 44.25
Associated British Foods PLC 1805 -37 -2 15.41
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,588.43 4.44 0.07 11.19
UK 15,245.80 -24.93 -0.16 23.35
FR CAC 40 4,119.10 2.47 0.06 13.78
DE DAX 30 8,495.73 49.19 0.58 11.60
US DJ Industrial Average 30 15,326.60 135.54 0.89 18.46
US Nasdaq Composite 100 3,725.01 -4.01 -0.11 25.83
US S&P 500 1,689.13 5.14 0.31 20.44
JP Nikkei 225 14,387.27 -37.80 -0.26 38.40
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,918.40 -18.74 -0.08 1.15
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,242.50 8.11 0.15 12.77
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 107.545 -0.115 -0.11 18.43
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 111.55 -0.205 -0.18 0.99
Gold ($/oz) 1356.4 -8.4 -0.62 -18.2
Silver ($/oz) 22.91 -0.27 -1.16 -23.84
Platinum ($/oz) 1469 -5.7 -0.39 -3.68
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.5817 -0.06 -2.13
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3308 -0.05 0.68
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1885 -0.01 -2.79
UK 100 called to open +15pts @ 6590

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:00     EZ           ECB Monthly report
  • 10:00     EZ           Industrial Production
  • 10:00     UK          BoE Governor + members speaking
  • 11:00     EU          Parliamentary vote on Syria
  • 12:40     EZ           ECB Preside Draghi speaks
  • 13:30     US          Jobless Claims, Import & Export Prices
  • 14:00     EZ           ECB Preside Draghi speaks

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +15pts this morning at 6590, although still struggling with the 6600 level, despite Syria situation cooling in terms of imminent action, with the clock ticking towards the Fed’s update and potential tapering next week.

Another mixed session in Asia despite the positive US close. Japan’s Nikkei hindered by stronger JPY and disappointing Machine Orders which failed to rebound as expected and despite talk of a big stimulus programme to offset the sales tax hike next April.

Australia helped by weak AUD boosting exporters, a function of a drop in consumer inflation expectations and deterioration in jobs data. New Zealand left rates on hold but suggested rate hike next year, helping the NZD. Elsewhere in Asia tech names linked to Apple shared the pain of product launch disappointment.

US markets closed up, excluding Nasdaq, weighed down by Apple’s negative reaction to product launch. Sentiment boosted stateside by strong demand for government debt, however, even this was eclipsed by telecom giant Verizon selling twice as much, completing the biggest corporate debt sale in history as part of the financing for its buyout of Vodafone’s stake in their Verizon Wireless joint venture.

ECB’s Asmussen still dovish and too early to tighten accommodative policy stances while colleague Hansson said policy currently appropriate but options available, including another LTRO – backstop still being emphasised.

In focus today we have inflation data from Eurozone members France, Spain and Italy expected unchanged if not a touch cooler. Eurozone Industrial production is seen turning down in July. US Jobless claims are expected to have ticked up last week, while US Import and Export prices are seen accelerating, the former more than the latter, a hindrance for consumers but a help for the USD.

Lots of speeches today with the ECB monthly report and EU President Barosso. The BoE’s Carney gives evidence to the Treasury Select committee with investors watching for any suggestions the bank has changed its view on forward guidance which markets refuse to believe with GBP hitting 7-month highs on yesterday’s jobs data. Note BoE’s Miles saying shouldn’t assume MPC near tightening given higher bond yields and recent strong data.

The EU parliament votes on Syria and ECB President Draghi also speaks as does Fed member Dudley ahead of next week’s potential tapering while peers remain quiet.

The UK 100 chart shows 6600 as a clear level of resistance. Topped out? Nonetheless given the limited trading range of the last 2 days, and with 6560 serving as support yesterday after Tuesday’s break up above there is still potential for good news to push things higher (6630?), with an underlying appetite still lurking. Support now 6580 maintaining trend if rising lows since 4 Sept.

In FX, USD index still under pressure, down at 81.5 levels last seen end-August, hindered by cooling in Syria situation and despite strong demand for US debt yesterday. GBP/USD broken above 1.58 and 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of 2013 Jan-Mar decline on USD weakness and UK jobs data – resistance likely 1.589. EUR/USD also benefiting from USD weakness, up at 1.33.

Gold broken below trendline of rising support at $1355. Safehaven demand eased on reduced geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria and despite weaker USD. Watch for support at $1350. If not, the level likely becomes resistance.

Oil prices settled with Brent Crude around $111.5 and US Light at $107.5 after their steep declines on a calming of the Syria situation and reduced potential for supply disruption.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.

 

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • JP             Machine Orders                                         Worse
  • AU            Jobs                                                             Worse
  • AU            Consumer Inflation Expectations               Dropped
  • DE            Wholesale Prices                                        Deteriorated

See Live Macro calendar for all details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Morrisons first half profit falls 10%
  • Ocado quarterly sales rise 16.4% and cash pile grows as Morrisons deal makes headway
  • Home Retail’s Argos Q2 like-for-like sales up 2.7%
  • Next first-half profit rises 8.2 pct
  • Kier says optimistic about UK recovery, ups dividend
  • AMEC opts not to make an offer for Kentz Corp.
  • Essar Energy upsizes Axis Bank loan
  • Gulf Keystone appoints Deutsche Bank for move to main list

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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