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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Burberry Group PLC 1509 69 4.8 23.08
Tullow Oil PLC 1090 23 2.2 -13.56
Tesco PLC 349.5 5.9 1.7 4.02
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 282 4 1.4 7.22
Petrofac Ltd 1302 18 1.4 -19.78
ITV PLC 152.1 1.9 1.3 44.58
Reed Elsevier PLC 797.5 9.5 1.2 24.22
Royal Dutch Shell PLC 2271.5 24.5 1.1 4.44
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo PLC 903.5 -47.5 -5 -51.08
Vedanta Resources PLC 1062 -32 -2.9 -8.21
Randgold Resources Ltd 4105 -108 -2.6 -31.01
Glencore Xstrata PLC 257.65 -6.6 -2.5 -26.66
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 2285 -55 -2.4 -3.71
British American Tobacco PLC 3482 -71 -2 11.57
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 269.8 -5.3 -1.9 46
CRH PLC 1331 -24 -1.8 6.65
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,504.96 -8.12 -0.12 10.29
UK 14,531.20 -89.38 -0.61 17.42
FR CAC 40 3,840.53 -3.03 -0.08 5.48
DE DAX 30 8,048.76 -8.99 -0.11 5.73
US DJ Industrial Average 30 15,291.70 -8.64 -0.06 16.69
US Nasdaq Composite 100 3,520.76 16.50 0.47 16.60
US S&P 500 1,652.62 0.30 0.02 15.88
JP Nikkei 225 14,476.85 60.25 0.0042 39.26
HK Hang Seng Index 48 21,479.00 574.44 0.0275 -5.20
AU S&P/ASX 200 4,952.90 51.54 0.0105 6.54
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 106.93 0.35 0.33 16.11
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 108.665 0.46 0.43 -2.35
Gold ($/oz) 1286.25 4.75 0.37 -23.24
Silver ($/oz) 19.9625 0.2125 1.08 -34.2
Platinum ($/oz) 1406.65 8.95 0.64 -8.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.5143 0.1 -6.77
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3121 0.03 -0.59
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1542 0.08 -6.28
UK Index called to open +105pts

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 13:30     US          Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30     US          Continuing Claims

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK 100 called to open higher by around 100 points as Asian stocks and metals rose as Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said the US will continue to need economic stimulus. In Asia, markets were also helped by the BoJ keeping its bond-buying program unchanged leading to Yen climbing versus the dollar.

Overnight in Asia more than 2 stocks rose for every one that fell on the MSCi’s Asian gauge, being teed up for its highest close since 4th June. Shares in Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan jumped more than 1.9% while Australian equities rose 0.8%.

The Shanghai Composite extended yesterday’s gain (biggest 2-day gain in 6 months) by another 2.2% as speculation that the government will take measures to boost economic growth as data showed yesterday that imports and exports declined unexpectedly in June.

The BoJ kept its 2015 core inflation target of 1.9%. We also saw Australia’s unemployment rate increase, its highest level since 2009, showing the challenge new PM Rudd faces. Jobless data rose to 5.7% last month. Other overnight data showed that Japanese Machine orders increased MoM.

In US markets Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments last night have changed everything this morning – for the better. The UK Index will be quick out of the blocks today – do not hesitate in acting this morning.

The Dow Jones futures are trading 180pts higher after the market closed down just 8pts before Bernanke spoke after the closing bell.

The Fed Chairman confirmed inflation and job numbers are among the factors in retaining stimulus – for now. It appears tapering is still on the horizon but not in the foreground, sparking aggressive trading during the night in Asian markets (Nikkei, Hang Seng, ASX200 all rallying as much as 2.7%).

‘Easy money’ has cheapened the USD, the greenback falling against most of its peers.

A knock-on effect seen in commodity markets, Brent Crude and US Light both above $107 and gold topping out at $1299.13 before easing to $1292 currently.

In corporate earnings Yum Brands, parent of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, reported Q2 sales had dropped by 15% as business in China was hurt by a bird flu outbreak last year raising questions about the safety of chicken and disrupting supply chains. The affects clearly still being felt.

In focus today will be how the UK Index will continue to react following Bernanke’s comments (or lack of clarity) with regards to sustained QE. As stated earlier with the UK Index called higher by 110 points, the US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims at 13:30 will be watched closely. BoE Miles is speaking at 9:30 –  will he follow suit with Bernanke?

Company wise will be trading statements from AB Food, Balfour Beatty, HAYS, Premier Oil and Supergroup – another profit warning from Supergroup or will they shine like Burberry yesterday?

UK 100 surges in the futures overnight to 6654 level last seen on May 31st before settling around 6600. Having broken through resistance of 6500 this could now provide support. Next stop back to highs above 6800?

In FX, following Bernanke’s comments the dollar declined against most major peers. With £ vs $ gaining over 200 pips now trading at 1.511. £ vs € at 1.151 and € vs $ at 1.308. Sterling wise will BoE Miles cause the same movements as Bernanke or Carney.

In Commodities, following dollar weakness Gold is now testing the $1300 handle having moved almost 3% overnight. WTI nearing 15 month highs after US stockpiles fell for a second week now trading at $107

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service

 

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • JAPAN      Rate Decision                         0.1%
  • AUSSIE     Employment Change          10.3K
  • AUSSIE     Unemployment Rate          5.7%

See Live Macro calendar for all details

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Shell cuts deal with U.S. to cut pollution at Houston refinery
  • BP registers U.S. unit as swap dealer with regulator
  • Barclays wins dismissal of credit union regulator’s lawsuit
  • Ashmore says assets reach $77.4 bln at end-June
  • Gulfsands Petroleum says chairman Andrew West to retire
  • Unilever ups stake in Hindustan Unilever to 67%
  • Babcock says trading in line with expectations
  • Hays fees rise 1 percent, sees FY profit at the top of market estimates
  • Kier says is preferred bidder to build new Broadmoor Hospital
  • Petropavlovsk unaware of reason for share movement
  • Balfour Beatty says profit will skew towards H2
  • Lavendon says in line with board’s expectations
  • Supergroup year pretax rises 22 percent
  • Primark drives AB Foods sales rise
  • Moneysupermarket says H1 revenue and EBITDA in line
  • Centaur Media sees profits slightly ahead of expectations
  • Morgan Sindall to build 269 million stg London housing scheme
  • Aureus Mining says Ndablama delivers high grade gold intercepts
  • Playtech buys Pokerstrategy.com for 38.3 mln euros

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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